Flexible Seasonal Time Series Models

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new class of flexible seasonal time series models to characterize the trend and seasonal variations. The proposed model consists of a common trend function over periods and additive individual trend (seasonal effect) functions that are specific to each season within periods. A local linear approach is developed to estimate the trend and seasonal effect functions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators, together with a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance, are obtained under the α-mixing conditions and without specifying the error distribution. The proposed methodologies are illustrated with a simulated example and two economic and financial time series, which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior.

Citation

Cai, Z. and Chen, R. (2006), "Flexible Seasonal Time Series Models", Fomby, T.B. and Terrell, D. (Ed.) Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 20 Part 2), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 63-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(05)20022-1