On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics
Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling
ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7, eISBN: 978-1-80262-061-0
Publication date: 18 January 2022
Abstract
Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented rising mean temperature levels, the authors also examine range-based measures of daily temperature volatility. Specifically, using data for select US cities over the past half-century, the authors compare the evolving time series dynamics of the average daily temperature (AVG) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR; the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures). The authors characterize trend and seasonality in these two series using linear models with time-varying coefficients. These straightforward yet flexible approximations provide evidence of evolving DTR seasonality and stable AVG seasonality.
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Acknowledgements
Acknowledgments
For comments and/or assistance, we are especially grateful to the Editor and the Referee, as well as Bob Amano, Michael Bauer, Sean Campbell, Preston Ching, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Rob Engle, Max Göbel, Jesus Gonzalo, Michael Goldstein, David Hendry, Luke Jackson, Kajal Lahiri, Golnoush Rahimzadeh, Dick Startz, Allan Timmermann, Mike Tubbs, David Wigglesworth, and Boyuan Zhang, and seminar/conference participants at the Universities of Chicago, Nottingham, Oxford, and Washington.
Citation
Diebold, F.X. and Rudebusch, G.D. (2022), "On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics", Chudik, A., Hsiao, C. and Timmermann, A. (Ed.) Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 43A), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 9-28. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-90532021000043A002
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2022 Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch