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Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2023

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PROSPECTS 2023

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2023.

Shipping is vulnerable to more severe disruption ahead

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INT

Shippers are being forced to take longer routes or pay higher insurance premiums, increasing costs, disrupting supply chains and absorbing the post-pandemic increase in shipping…

Organised crime poses evolving threats in Europe

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INTERNATIONAL

Combined with ongoing trends (such as digitalisation), existing problems (such as institutional corruption and drug trafficking) and new policy directions (including the green…

Allies’ Pyongyang visit highlights policy anomalies

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NORTH KOREA

The first foreign groups allowed into North Korea since 2019, they toured an arms exhibition and watched a military parade. These featured nuclear-capable missiles banned under UN…

Rising crime will test Uganda’s security sector

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UGANDA

The identities and motives of the attackers remain contested, and police investigations are ongoing. However, two opposition legislators have been charged in connection with the…

Maritime rights are sore point in Indonesia-China ties

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INDONESIA/CHINA

Jakarta has repeatedly protested Chinese incursions into its EEZ. At the same time, China and Indonesia have burgeoning economic ties.

Japan will engage steadfastly with South-east Asia

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SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Japan is viewed by ASEAN states as the most constructive player among the major powers. China is seen as aggressive and the United States as unreliable under President Donald…

Central America elections pose risks of unrest

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CENTRAL AMERICA

Campaigning will be muted, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will constrain public events. Government handling of the crisis will be a consideration for voters, alongside…

Guatemala anti-corruption protests will endure

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GUATEMALA

The move, which follows a series of contentious judicial appointments earlier in the year, has heightened concern over the state’s commitment to addressing corruption. President…

Iran and Turkey will compartmentalise relations

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IRAN/TURKEY

As the new US administration seeks to re-engage with Iran, both Washington and Ankara have launched negotiations with Tehran's enemy Saudi Arabia. Iran and Turkey have major…