Central America elections pose risks of unrest

Significance

Campaigning will be muted, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will constrain public events. Government handling of the crisis will be a consideration for voters, alongside more traditional issues such as insecurity, perceived corruption and poor economic opportunities. Dramatic improvements in such areas will remain elusive, whoever secures election.

Impacts

• State weakness will hinder governments’ abilities to face health challenges and roll out vaccine programmes.
• Perceived impunity for politicians suspected of wrongdoing will drive unrest, especially if peaceful political expression is constrained.
• Costa Rica has no elections this year, but post-pandemic economic damage could hit government support ahead of 2022 polls.
• Economic hardship will drive more US-bound migration; an issue that will be formative for new governments’ relations with Washington.