Iran and Turkey will compartmentalise relations

Significance

As the new US administration seeks to re-engage with Iran, both Washington and Ankara have launched negotiations with Tehran's enemy Saudi Arabia. Iran and Turkey have major differences of interest in Syria, Iraq and the Caucasus. However, post-COVID-19 recovery efforts also underline the importance of their economic ties.

Impacts

• Ankara and Tehran may jointly push for increased engagement in regional multilateral initiatives to promote post-pandemic economic recovery.
• Anti-Turkish sentiment in Iraq would spike if Turkish forces came into direct confrontation with Iraqi militias.
• Both countries may engage with Abu Dhabi, but neither is likely to view it as a serious geopolitical actor.