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Leadership losses will weaken ISG in Iraq, Syria

Location:

SYRIA/IRAQ

The elimination of top- and mid-level cadres in US-led coalition airstrikes comes at a time when the group is also suffering serious battlefield losses. The strikes raise…

Al-Qaida to dominate jihadi landscape in Sahara-Sahel

Location:

NORTH/WEST AFRICA

AQIM assessment.

Cambodia local polls could produce policy instability

Location:

CAMBODIA

Outlook for Cambodia's local elections on June 4.

Lebanese Hezbollah will avoid post-Soleimani US fight

Location:

LEBANON

Mass popular protests forced the resignation of the previous coalition government and threatened Hezbollah's domestic political hegemony. This comes as the movement leads calls…

Sudan's civil war will grind on

Location:

SUDAN

Thousands of combatants and civilians have been killed, over 8 million people (around one-fifth of the population) have been displaced and 18 million face severe acute food…

Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

Nazarbayev's re-election will boost Kazakh 'siloviki'

Location:

KAZAKHSTAN

Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total…

Kenya court ruling sets stage for new controversies

Location:

KENYA

The unprecedented move overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s apparently comfortable victory over Raila Odinga by 54.2% of the vote to 44.7%. The court ruled on the basis of what…

Squabbling Syrian rebels will avoid showdown

Location:

SYRIA

In Damascus, HTS collaborated with more moderate groups from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Elsewhere, however, the rebels are deeply divided. HTS, the latest avatar of the former…

Militia abuses may increase in Niger

Location:

NIGER

This has sparked the growth of ethnic Zarma self-defence militias, known locally as ‘zankai’. These militias reflect broader communal self-defence efforts, often arising because…