Lebanese Hezbollah will avoid post-Soleimani US fight

Significance

Mass popular protests forced the resignation of the previous coalition government and threatened Hezbollah's domestic political hegemony. This comes as the movement leads calls for vengeance after the January 3 US killing of senior Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.

Impacts

• Hezbollah dominance will increase pressure on the Lebanese Armed Forces to prove that they operate independently.
• Riyadh-Tehran de-escalation efforts may result in pressure on Saudi Arabia’s local Lebanese allies to compromise with Hezbollah.
• An increasingly isolated Hamas in Gaza may seek to rebuild broken ties with Hezbollah and Iran.