Cambodia local polls could produce policy instability

Subject

Outlook for Cambodia's local elections on June 4.

Significance

Cambodia holds elections for commune/Sangkat councils on June 4, local administrative units consisting of clusters of villages. The election result will indicate the popularity of the two main political parties that will compete in the 2018 general election, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP).

Impacts

• Post-commune-election protests are likely, but will not reach the same height as after the 2013 election.
• Ahead of 2018, the CPP will push populist economic policies such as higher state officals pay to gain votes.
• Should the CNRP win the commune election, legislative instability may follow before the 2018 election.