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French drawdown would accelerate Sahel security trends

Location:

FRANCE/SAHEL

There were suggestions in February that France might reduce the size of its military commitment in the run-up to a Sahel summit in the Chadian capital N’Djamena. However, at the…

Barkhane’s end is not a game changer for the Sahel

Location:

SAHEL

French President Emmanuel Macron announced in June that France's Sahel-focused Operation Barkhane would wind down by early 2022. Although the actual drawdown plans are still…

New Burkinabe security operations will disappoint

Location:

BURKINA FASO

The operations follow a week after the single-most devastating jihadist attack since 2015, when at least 39 people were killed after an assault on a mining convoy in the Est…

Al-Qaida will dominate West Africa jihadist landscape

Location:

WEST AFRICA

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but jihadist groups have been expanding their area of operations in recent years from northern Mali and southern Libya to West…

Jihadist expansion into West Africa will take time

Location:

WEST AFRICA

While the overall number of incidents is fewer than a dozen since the rise of the region's jihadist insurgencies in the early 2010s, the trend lends credence to growing warnings…

Crises threaten trust in Burkina Faso's government

Location:

BURKINA FASO

Opposition and civil society frustration is growing, and the state’s eroding legitimacy could be further weakened by poorly managed polls.

Mozambique-Tanzania border insecurity likely to worsen

Location:

MOZAMBIQUE/TANZANIA

The attacks successfully targeted the Tanzanian armed forces, as well as civilians. The incidents have prompted the announcement of enhanced collaboration on security between the…

Nigeria's north-west violence will intensify further

Location:

NIGERIA

Still largely driven by a combination of criminal banditry and 'farmer-herder' conflicts but with hints of growing jihadist group involvement, the scope of insecurity has…

Nigeria's ruling party will speed up post-Buhari plans

Location:

NIGERIA

Buhari’s multiple and prolonged absences -- including one that lasted 49 days -- have weakened his hold on his All Progressives Congress (APC). The 74-year-old has made several…

Kenya faces challenges in responding to Nairobi attack

Location:

KENYA

The attack killed at least 21 people and injured 30, while security forces successfully evacuated roughly 700 others.