Nigeria's ruling party will speed up post-Buhari plans

Significance

Buhari’s multiple and prolonged absences -- including one that lasted 49 days -- have weakened his hold on his All Progressives Congress (APC). The 74-year-old has made several extended visits to the United Kingdom for medical treatment, which have undermined his ability to unify an increasingly fractious party.

Impacts

• The new US administration will increase military support for counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram despite humanitarian concerns.
• Buhari’s perceived neglect of the east and the Niger Delta could foster more resentment and secession calls from ethnic Igbos.
• Increased repression against pro-Biafra groups could radicalise them, driving them into more confrontational or even violent tactics.