Jihadist expansion into West Africa will take time

Significance

While the overall number of incidents is fewer than a dozen since the rise of the region's jihadist insurgencies in the early 2010s, the trend lends credence to growing warnings about the jihadist threat to coastal West African countries. Concern has focused on Ivory Coast and Benin, but there is also nervousness about Ghana, Togo and even Senegal.

Impacts

• Western governments will boost security assistance to coastal states.
• Intelligence sharing and joint operations will not forestall cross-border hit-and-run attacks.
• Most regional states will resort to security-focused responses whose abuses drive jihadist recruitment.