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Prospects for Ukraine to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

This perception can only increase. Essentially, the question is whether Ukraine will be able to make sufficient military gains in order to avoid having to fight -- with all the…

Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

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RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…

French military aid to Ukraine looks set to grow

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FRANCE

Although its support has been greater than some critics suggest, French military aid lags far behind that of several other Western countries, especially the United States and the…

Squabbling Syrian rebels will avoid showdown

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SYRIA

In Damascus, HTS collaborated with more moderate groups from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Elsewhere, however, the rebels are deeply divided. HTS, the latest avatar of the former…

Turkey will upgrade Ukraine partnership cautiously

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UKRAINE/TURKEY

The relationship is shaped and moderated by Turkey's mix of cooperation and competition with Moscow. Ankara will not use Ukraine as an arena for challenging Russia openly, but its…

Syrian government forces may retake Damascus suburbs

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SYRIA

Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad on November 9 recaptured the 1070 Apartments district on the western outskirts of Aleppo, marking the failure of the rebels’ second push…

Russia risks mission creep as Syrian rebels dig in

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SYRIA

Since the start of Russian airstrikes last September, the rebels have suffered their largest territorial loss to the regime in two years. The new counter-insurgent strategy…

Concentrating political power is risk to Tajikistan

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TAJIKISTAN

Stability risks in Tajikistan.

Venezuela talks continue but amid steep obstacles

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VENEZUELA

While there is moderate optimism among European, Latin American and Caribbean countries about a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis, the United States remains sceptical. The…

US leadership could firm EU wobbling on Ukraine

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EU

Eastern EU member-states, from the Baltics to the Black Sea, are united in applying existing sanctions against Russia, with only Hungary overtly weakening political unity on the…