While there is moderate optimism among European, Latin American and Caribbean countries about a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis, the United States remains sceptical. The US position strengthens more hawkish but domestically unpopular elements in the opposition that support a military intervention to remove President Nicolas Maduro.
- Progressing dialogue will put pressure on Guaido, whose appeasement of both pro- and anti-negotiation factions is unsustainable.
- Growing concern as to the impact of US sanctions on the humanitarian situation will intensify efforts to resolve the impasse.
- Amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, it will become morally and politically difficult to hold out for Maduro’s departure.