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Concentrating political power is risk to Tajikistan

Friday, May 27, 2016

Subject

Stability risks in Tajikistan.

Significance

In a May 22 referendum, voters in Tajikistan gave President Emomali Rahmon the right to stand for office repeatedly, in effect making him president for life. He is consolidating his power around a narrow base of relatives and allies at a time of particular economic stress. Another constitutional change banning faith-based political parties targeted the Islamic Rebirth Party (IRP), a significant and moderate force outlawed in 2015.

Impacts

  • Tajikistan will seek membership of the Eurasian Economic Union to secure better opportunities for labour migrants in Russia.
  • Cut off by Uzbekistan to the north, Tajikistan will try to expand trade and energy routes to South Asia.
  • Moscow will conduct regular counter-insurgency wargames through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

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