US leadership could firm EU wobbling on Ukraine

Significance

Eastern EU member-states, from the Baltics to the Black Sea, are united in applying existing sanctions against Russia, with only Hungary overtly weakening political unity on the EU’s ‘Eastern Flank’. Elsewhere, a leadership vacuum persists, with Germany and France hedging their support for Ukraine while trying to solve their energy challenges.

Impacts

• The transatlantic relationship will once more come under strain as Europeans confirm their fundamental security vulnerabilities.
• A decline in the EU’s attention to Ukraine will mean fewer people willing to host Ukrainian refugees.
• Hungary is becoming an unlikely ally for Germany and France in seeking more moderate positions towards Russia.
• However, this will not result in any EU softening in the negotiations to release Hungary’s funding.