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Lebanese polls may largely confirm the status quo

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LEBANON

A new electoral law passed on June 16, 2017, for the first time allows expatriates to participate. It also gives independent candidates a chance to compete against the established…

New Lebanese cabinet will reflect Hezbollah’s rise

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LEBANON

Legislators re-elected Hariri as premier on May 24, despite his bloc’s loss of seats in the May 6 polls and the increased parliamentary dominance of Shia political-military…

Prospects for Iraq to end-2018

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PROSPECTS H2 2018

Prospects for Iraq to end-2018.

Iraq’s Sunnis will vie for post-election relevance

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IRAQ

Both minorities complain the draft budget does not allocate sufficient funds to their areas. Sunni lawmakers are also concerned about the ongoing displacement of their…

Iraqi Kurdistan will face dilemmas over federal ties

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IRAQ

Long-time Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani and new Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) chief Bafel Talabani discussed how to form a common front over…

Iraqi Shia rivals will likely compromise on a cabinet

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IRAQ

Against a backdrop of fierce civil disturbances in oil-rich Basra, religious leaders are encouraging political blocs to expedite government formation. The new parliament meets…

Iraqi Kurdistan is set to lose much of its autonomy

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IRAQ

Between deepening internal divisions, increased foreign pressure and a stark economic crisis, the semi-autonomy of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is facing its most severe…

Iraq’s new cabinet will struggle with IS resurgence

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IRAQ

The incident is symptomatic of an Islamic State (IS) resurgence in the country. Yet despite parliament’s approval of Abdul-Mahdi as prime minister and ratification of the core of…

The Lebanese election outcome is highly uncertain

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LEBANON

The presence in the election of a slew of anti-establishment parties has added another layer to the traditional pro- and anti-Hezbollah divide. Although the new parties seek to…

Israeli-Palestinian war will break old assumptions

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ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS

It occupied towns and army installations, killing and kidnapping hundreds and fighting pitched battles with Israeli forces. Israel formally declared war on October 8, signalling…