The Lebanese election outcome is highly uncertain

Significance

The presence in the election of a slew of anti-establishment parties has added another layer to the traditional pro- and anti-Hezbollah divide. Although the new parties seek to replace the traditional elite and overhaul the political system, they are split on how to achieve this.

Impacts

• Significant losses for Amal could force Nabih Berri to retire as speaker of parliament; a position he has held since 1992.
• A lengthy government formation process will delay the vital IMF negotiations.
• External actors, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, will attempt to manipulate the government formation process for their own ends.