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Iraq’s new cabinet will struggle with IS resurgence

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Significance

The incident is symptomatic of an Islamic State (IS) resurgence in the country. Yet despite parliament’s approval of Abdul-Mahdi as prime minister and ratification of the core of his cabinet, key security posts (including interior and defence ministers) remain vacant.

Impacts

  • Contested security leadership may facilitate an IS resurgence.
  • The United States will likely grant sanctions exemptions for purchases of Iranian electricity and gas.
  • A revenue-sharing deal with the Kurds will likely be written into the 2019 budget.
  • Oil exports via Kirkuk are likely to resume.
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