Iraqi Kurdistan will face dilemmas over federal ties

Significance

Long-time Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani and new Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) chief Bafel Talabani discussed how to form a common front over government formation in Baghdad. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is benefitting from temporary stability linked to higher oil prices.

Impacts

• Kurdish hesitation on whether to commit to a Sadrist-led majority federal government will also simultaneously hold back Sunni groups.
• Both Turkey and Iran could become more militaristic in their approach to the KRI -- and each other.
• The intra-PUK deadlock could lead to fighting in Suleimaniya, but mediation is more likely, if senior party figures step up.