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Armenia and Azerbaijan will import more arms

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

France announced in November that it would deliver armoured vehicles to Armenia, prompting protests from Azerbaijan. The news threatens the tentative negotiations taking place…

Iran will work to improve ties in the South Caucasus

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IRAN

Iran perceives that it has become isolated in the South Caucasus, as a result of changing geopolitical relations over the past three years. Israel has increased its presence…

Iran’s SCO inclusion will bring limited security gains

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IRAN

SCO membership will be Tehran’s first experience of a regional defence-security organisation since it withdrew from the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1979. Iran’s defence…

Iran-Azerbaijan ties will strengthen despite distrust

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IRAN/AZERBAIJAN

The changing regional dynamic as Azerbaijan has gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, a traditional Iranian ally, creates a dilemma for Tehran. Iran fears that Turkey…

Israel's political crisis will raise security risks

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ISRAEL

The proposals are part of a controversial package of reforms to weaken the courts, which Netanyahu’s critics say would eliminate checks on executive power. The reforms have…

Syrian Kurds might lose their US military protection

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SYRIA

The autonomous administration there is under increased pressure, exacerbated by the Gaza conflict, which has resulted in escalating confrontation between pro-Iranian Iraqi…

Armenia's relations with Russia will worsen

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ARMENIA

The rapid defeat of ethnic Armenian forces exposed the weakness of Russian security guarantees. Yerevan had already expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow's diminishing ability to…

Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

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RUSSIA

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking…

Yemen's Huthis will signal resilience

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YEMEN

This appears to be the first Huthi response to the January 12 US and UK strikes on northern Yemen. On January 13, US President Joe Biden said Washington had delivered a message…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

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CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.