Iran-Azerbaijan ties will strengthen despite distrust

Significance

The changing regional dynamic as Azerbaijan has gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, a traditional Iranian ally, creates a dilemma for Tehran. Iran fears that Turkey could use the situation to increase its regional presence, particularly through the Zangezur Corridor, which, if established in Armenia, would curtail Tehran’s regional influence.

Impacts

• Relations between Armenia and Russia will deteriorate.
• Azerbaijan will strengthen its close military and economic ties with Israel.
• Russia-Iran relations in the transport and military realms will develop further.
• As Azerbaijan’s ties with Central Asia strengthen, Turkey will likewise increase its outreach to Central Asia.