Iran will work to improve ties in the South Caucasus

Significance

Iran perceives that it has become isolated in the South Caucasus, as a result of changing geopolitical relations over the past three years. Israel has increased its presence, while traditional ties between Russia, Armenia and Iran have weakened, and Turkish-Azerbaijani relations have strengthened.

Impacts

• The strengthening of the Azerbaijan-Turkey axis will increase the possibility of the realisation of the Zangezur corridor to Nakhichevan.
• Israel's political, economic and military-intelligence influence will strengthen in Azerbaijan.
• An upgrade to transit routes between Iran and Armenia is unlikely at present because of the difficulty of raising the necessary finance.