Syrian Kurds might lose their US military protection

Significance

The autonomous administration there is under increased pressure, exacerbated by the Gaza conflict, which has resulted in escalating confrontation between pro-Iranian Iraqi militias and Kurdish-allied US forces in Syria, as well as distracting international attention from intensified Turkish airstrike campaigns. These have damaged infrastructure vital for the local economy.

Impacts

• Rising uncertainty will boost local sources of instability in northeast Syria.
• Emigration of Syrian Kurds will increase further, exacerbating local skills shortages.
• Russian and US opposition will for now prevent Turkey from following through on threats of a new Syrian ground operation.