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Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

Exit of Russian troops signals shift away from Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The visit followed Moscow’s decision to pull out its last remaining troops from Nagorno-Karabakh before the expiration of their peacekeeping mandate. This reflects the Kremlin’s…

Ukrainian public will expect war to end in victory

Location:

UKRAINE

The Russian invasion has changed the lives of millions of Ukrainians, forcing many to seek refuge abroad or move to a safer place within the country. However, the war has pushed…

Moscow will try to diminish Ukraine's role in talks

Location:

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Fears of imminent conflict sparked by Moscow's allegation that Ukraine sent covert forces into Crimea have receded, but the crisis demonstrates the strength of Russian-Ukrainian…

Ukrainian forces will struggle to regain initiative

Location:

UKRAINE

Kyiv has used the initial success of this operation to create a positive new narrative to replace the previously dominant characterisation of the war as having shifted in Russia’s…

Eventual Ukrainian offensive will involve more forces

Location:

UKRAINE

These are the first offensive operations using Western equipment and benefitting from NATO countries’ training in their use, and confirm Kyiv’s commitment to counter-offensive…

War of attrition in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon

Location:

UKRAINE

After Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive failed to achieve any of its major objectives, Russia has regained the initiative in the ground war. It captured the frontline fortress…

Surprise Ukrainian attack raises stakes for Kyiv

Location:

UKRAINE

Ukrainian mechanised forces breached light Russian defences. After two days of fighting, Russia has lost full control of as much as 400 square kilometres. Elements of several…

Armenia will avoid severing ties with Russia

Location:

ARMENIA

Relations with Moscow have become even more strained since the September 2023 fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, compounding the shock caused by Russia failing to protect Armenia from…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

Location:

CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.