Surprise Ukrainian attack raises stakes for Kyiv

Significance

Ukrainian mechanised forces breached light Russian defences. After two days of fighting, Russia has lost full control of as much as 400 square kilometres. Elements of several elite Ukrainian brigades appear to have been involved in the attack, numbering several thousand troops, equipped with over 100 vehicles and armed with artillery and air-defence systems.

Impacts

• Direct attacks on Russian territory are likely to cause anxiety in some of Ukraine’s NATO supporters.
• Concerns over the safety of the Kursk nuclear power plant located 75 kilometres from the border will rise.
• The Ukrainian attack is likely to harden the attitudes of the Russian population to the war.