Ukrainian public will expect war to end in victory

Significance

The Russian invasion has changed the lives of millions of Ukrainians, forcing many to seek refuge abroad or move to a safer place within the country. However, the war has pushed Ukrainians closer together in their attitudes on a range of political and social issues, including a common belief that the war will end in Kyiv’s favour.

Impacts

• Positive news from the frontline will raise expectations of victory, making public support for peace talks with Russia even less likely.
• A failure to achieve a strategic breakthrough in its counter-offensive will increase support for a compromise-based peace deal.
• Public support for NATO membership, perceived as the best security guarantee for Ukraine, is likely to remain unchanged at around 60%.
• Western support will be tested by the slow progress of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.