Ukrainian forces will struggle to regain initiative

Significance

Kyiv has used the initial success of this operation to create a positive new narrative to replace the previously dominant characterisation of the war as having shifted in Russia’s favour. The attack into Kursk galvanised external support for Ukraine and boosted morale among troops and the wider population.

Impacts

• Pressure on Ukraine’s NATO allies to allow the use of long-range weapons on targets in Russia will rise.
• NATO members are unlikely to intervene directly in Ukraine.
• Russian forces will continue to press hard around the city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas.