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Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane

Location:

CENTRAL ASIA

During his meeting with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Putin called the two countries “not just allies, but very close allies”. A month earlier, Putin had…

Armenia-Turkey rapprochement a surprise outcome of war

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ARMENIA/TURKEY

Moscow hosted the meeting, implicitly claiming the role of arbiter in the South Caucasus. The 'normalisation' initiative is an unexpected development since it follows Turkey's…

China's influence in the South Caucasus will grow

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CAUCASUS

In April, the deputy minister of international relations of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, Chen Zhou, visited Georgia to discuss bilateral relations. The trip…

South Caucasus rail revival will bring uneven benefits

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The two-month conflict between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces has produced a breakthrough in an unexpected area: rail routes providing the South Caucasus with new connectivity…

Russia will lose more influence in the South Caucasus

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SOUTH CAUCASUS

Azerbaijan’s recapture of the Nagorno-Karabakh region signalled a new era in Russia’s foreign policy towards the South Caucasus. Distracted by its war in Ukraine, Moscow is no…

Armenia and Azerbaijan will import more arms

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

France announced in November that it would deliver armoured vehicles to Armenia, prompting protests from Azerbaijan. The news threatens the tentative negotiations taking place…

Russia will rely more on Chinese demand for gas

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RUSSIA

Modestly increased gas exports to China have offset only a fraction of the lost business in Europe. The United States last year imposed sanctions on the flagship Arctic-2 LNG…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

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CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.

Prospects for Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal are remote

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The confrontation is the first such incident since the EU civilian mission in Armenia (EUMA) was launched on February 20 to observe the border from the Armenian side. It was the…

Prospects for Ukraine to end-2022

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for Ukraine to end-2022.