Prospects for Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal are remote

Significance

The confrontation is the first such incident since the EU civilian mission in Armenia (EUMA) was launched on February 20 to observe the border from the Armenian side. It was the most serious incident since September 2022, when Azerbaijan shelled Goris and its environs deep in Armenia.

Impacts

• Georgia will continue its efforts to provide a platform for Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.
• Internal political pressure on Pashinyan will grow.
• The United States will maintain a balanced position on Armenia while not undercutting its security ties with Azerbaijan.
• Armenia’s ties with Israel will remain cold because of the latter’s increasingly close ties with Azerbaijan.
• Russia and Iran will increase their efforts to complete the North-South trade corridor.