Armenia-Turkey rapprochement a surprise outcome of war

Significance

Moscow hosted the meeting, implicitly claiming the role of arbiter in the South Caucasus. The 'normalisation' initiative is an unexpected development since it follows Turkey's strong support for Azerbaijan's successful campaign to capture Armenian-held territory last year.

Impacts

• An open border and cross-border trade would help to revive the economically depressed area around Kars in eastern Turkey.
• The United States and EU will support the process as it will boost east-west connectivity.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will face domestic pushback but is likely to resist it.
• Fearful of losing transit fees, Georgia may consider restoring rail links through Abkhazia.