South Caucasus rail revival will bring uneven benefits

Significance

The two-month conflict between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces has produced a breakthrough in an unexpected area: rail routes providing the South Caucasus with new connectivity with their neighbours.

Impacts

• Funding substantial infrastructure work will challenge state finances during post-COVID-19 recovery.
• If the prospective economic benefits look one-sided, Armenia's prime minister will come under further domestic pressure.
• For Abkhazia's leadership, discussing a renewed rail connection offers a way of rebuilding economic ties with Tbilisi.