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COVID-19 response may disrupt power balances in Iran

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IRAN

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), together with its Basij militia, has partly restored its reputation for effective action. At the same time, new local civil society…

South Sudan's violent standoff is unlikely to cease

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SOUTH SUDAN

Fighting has escalated between rebel groups and the government since the second breakdown of cooperation between President Salva Kiir and Machar (his erstwhile deputy) in July…

The prospect of renewed conflict looms in Juba

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SOUTH SUDAN

The escalation in conflict risks fuelling further violence in the capital and around the country. The fighting is detrimental to an ailing peace agreement and the economy.

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

The coming year will see many come to a head, with potentially far-reaching consequences.

South Sudan’s government will hinder aid efforts

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SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan’s civil war is now in its fourth year, during which the intensity and extent of fighting has fluctuated. Despite the notional maintenance of the August 2015 peace…

South Sudan’s humanitarian crisis will deepen

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SOUTH SUDAN

Since South Sudan’s conflict entered its most recent phase in July, humanitarian needs have risen. Donors and relief agencies will prepare for another year of a large-scale…

Biden’s team will try to reset engagement with Africa

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AFRICA/US

This may see a redefining of US-Africa policy compared to the Trump administration’s focus on competition with China, including: resolving questions surrounding the role for US…

East Africa's humanitarian needs may increase

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EAST AFRICA

While South Sudan is one of the world's most alarming humanitarian crises, East Africa has a history of protracted and severe emergencies. Beyond the human and societal costs…

Central America faces major challenges in 2021

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CENTRAL AMERICA

While governments have begun tentative efforts to restart economic activity, the crisis is far from over. It looks sure to shape the main issues of 2021, exacerbating all the…

Humanitarian funding to Jordan will fall

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JORDAN

While donors increasingly favour development assistance, Jordan still requires emergency humanitarian aid for the near-3 million resident refugees and migrants. Amman worries that…