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Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions

Location:

IRAQ/SYRIA/TURKEY

Large-scale water capture in Turkish dams upstream has caused long-term shortages elsewhere in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, notably eastern Syria and southern Iraq…

Islamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence

Location:

IRAQ/SYRIA

Enabled in part by responses to the pandemic, 2020 saw a temporary surge in IS assaults across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. Attacks have also again become more coordinated and…

Middle East captagon flows threaten regional security

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Between 2020 and 2021, the Middle Eastern captagon trade grew by nearly USD2bn to over USD5bn in market value, with further growth expected in 2022. Furthermore, seizures of…

Better US ties are a short-term boost for Syrian Kurds

Location:

SYRIA

The Kurdish administration is seeking to maximise benefits from much-improved relations with US President Joe Biden, compared with his predecessor. However, economic pressures are…

Islamic State will intensify global operations

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for the attacks. Nearly two years since its June 2014 offensive in Syria and Iraq, ISG still controls and governs significant…

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

Location:

IRAQ

The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region.

Iraq’s Sunnis will vie for post-election relevance

Location:

IRAQ

Both minorities complain the draft budget does not allocate sufficient funds to their areas. Sunni lawmakers are also concerned about the ongoing displacement of their…

Iraqi Kurdistan will face dilemmas over federal ties

Location:

IRAQ

Long-time Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani and new Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) chief Bafel Talabani discussed how to form a common front over…

Iraqi Kurdistan may lose its 'safe haven' reputation

Location:

IRAQ

Baghdad and Erbil are currently negotiating a new budget agreement covering oil revenue and fiscal transfers, which could provide immediate relief. However, internal divisions are…

Turkish suspicion may derail Syrian Kurds’ unity deal

Location:

SYRIA

The PYD controls the US-backed Kurdish-led administration in north-east Syria. It was the target of an October 2019 invasion by Turkey, which equates it with its own rebel…