Middle East captagon flows threaten regional security

Significance

Between 2020 and 2021, the Middle Eastern captagon trade grew by nearly USD2bn to over USD5bn in market value, with further growth expected in 2022. Furthermore, seizures of captagon occurred in areas outside the Middle East, such as Nigeria and Malaysia.

Impacts

• Government policies will force traffickers to adopt sophisticated smuggling methods to reduce the chance of interdiction.
• Captagon tablets will evolve in formulaic composition, which could carry serious implications for regional public health.
• Captagon production will be dominated by state and non-state actors in Syria and to lesser extent Lebanon.