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1 – 10 of 10This essay aims to analyze the process of structural adjustment in developing countries. Its focus is on macroeconomic stabilization in the short‐term, but the analysis is…
Abstract
Purpose
This essay aims to analyze the process of structural adjustment in developing countries. Its focus is on macroeconomic stabilization in the short‐term, but the analysis is situated in a wider context to consider how it relates to the implications of structural reform in the medium‐term and the prospects for economic growth in the long‐term.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper begins by setting out the contours of the orthodox, the Keynesian and the heterodox perspectives on stabilization and adjustment to highlight the differences. Such different perspectives on macroeconomic theory and policy, it suggests, are attributable to differences in objectives, assumptions and beliefs. These are made explicit.
Findings
The paper argues that the relationship between stabilization and growth is characterized by inter‐connections rather than trade‐offs and suggests that outcomes depend on modes of adjustment. It also provides a macroeconomic analysis of government deficits and public finances, which are critical in the process of adjustment. This highlights the macroeconomic significance of government deficits and points to the fallacies of deficit fetishism based on accounting frameworks. The intersection of economics and politics in the design and implementation of macroeconomic policies is also explored.
Practical implications
Going beyond a critique of orthodox stabilization programmes, it shows that there are alternatives in macro‐management for economies in crisis, for which it is necessary to shift the focus from the financial to the real economy, from the short‐term to the long‐term, and from equilibrium to development.
Originality/value
The paper develops a heterodox perspective on the macroeconomics of structural adjustment and public finances. And, it sets out an alternative framework which straddles time horizons, to understand the restructuring of economies over time.
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A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the European Monetary Union crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence…
Abstract
Purpose
A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the European Monetary Union crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states.
Design/methodology/approach
In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100 percent) convergence are then computed from the estimations.
Findings
Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF-backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence.
Practical implications
As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs.
Originality/value
It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions.
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Vikas Charmal and Ashima Goyal
A change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable…
Abstract
Purpose
A change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable liquidity is in surplus or when it is in deficit; second whether it is better with interest rates as the policy instrument or quantity of money or a mixture of the two.
Design/methodology/approach
This study first shows that the period of analysis can be divided into two separate regimes one of liquidity surplus (2002–2010) and the other of deficit (2011–2019).This study then estimates separate structural vector auto-regressions (SVARs) for the financial and real sector, with relevant exogenous foreign, policy and other variables for each of the periods as well as SVARs for the whole period with alternative operating instruments.
Findings
Monetary transmission from the repo rate was better during the period the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) was in surplus with the central bank in absorption mode denoting excess durable liquidity. Pass through was faster and the repo rate had a greater influence on other variables. The impact of the rate on output gap exceeds that on inflation. The weighted average call money rate was found to outperform others as the operating target. Monetary policy has evolved so that policy rates are more effective in transmission compared to money supply, but best results are when durable liquidity is also in surplus.
Originality/value
The results contribute to ongoing debates on the Indian monetary policy framework and give useful inputs for policy in emerging markets where research is scarce. They suggest keeping the LAF in deficit mode over 2011–19 was not optimal.
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Imran Abbas Jadoon, Raheel Mumtaz, Jibran Sheikh, Usman Ayub and Mohammad Tahir
The international institutions, policymakers and governments are promoting green growth as a policy objective for global financial stability (FS) without sound empirical…
Abstract
Purpose
The international institutions, policymakers and governments are promoting green growth as a policy objective for global financial stability (FS) without sound empirical investigation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate whether the green economy would be successful in achieving its main objective i.e. stabilizing the world financial system because the investment stakes are too high for this green transition.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) methodology on panel data of 90 countries for 6 years from 2010 to 2015 to investigate the impact of green growth economy on FS.
Findings
The results of the current study revealed that overall green growth enhanced FS in the country for both the short and long run. However, the social inclusive dimension of green growth was irrelevant in creating FS.
Research limitations/implications
The results of the current study validate the growth-led finance hypothesis and encourage the policymakers to strengthen the policy initiative for green growth. Because green growth mitigates economic and environmental risk to create a stable financial environment. However, social inclusiveness needs to be explored through alternate paradigm in relevance to FS.
Originality/value
As per the author’s knowledge, it is a pioneer study to empirically investigate the impact of green growth on FS which would be useful in understanding the green growth and FS dynamics.
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Muhammad Ali Nasir and Karen Jackson
In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of…
Abstract
Purpose
In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of trade imbalances in selected major trade surplus (Germany, China, Japan, Russia and KSA) and major trade deficit countries (USA, UK, France, India and Turkey).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used a structural vector auto-regressive model on data from ten countries with the highest trade deficit and surplus. The period of analysis is from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1.
Findings
The key findings suggest that although exchange rate misalignment from equilibrium may have some implications for the current account balance for surplus and deficit countries, the effects observed were rather very mild and transitory. There was a heterogeneity in the response of the current account position to exchange rate misalignment in each country, concomitantly; the exchange rate misalignment shall not be seen as the sole responsible factor in the debate on global trade imbalances.
Research limitations/implications
The research has profound implications in terms of exploring the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate misalignment as a cause of major global trade imbalances.
Practical implications
This study has important practical implications for the trade policy of major economies in the world. These are twofold. First, this study has analysed and reported on the degree of misalignment of exchange from its equilibrium values in the major trade surplus and deficit countries. Second, it has investigated the implications of any misalignment for the trade balance or respective economies.
Social implications
There are important social implications as the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate–trade balance nexus has been heavily politicised. This study provides an empirical insight and an answer to these claims which have social and political implications.
Originality/value
There is a significant element of originality and contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the subject. In the context of debate on competitive devaluation this is the first study which has investigated whether the exchange rate has been misaligned from its equilibrium values (competitive devaluation) and whether there is some nexus between the real exchange rate misalignment and trade imbalances in under-analysis economies.
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The purpose of this paper is to make a case for an international clearing house.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to make a case for an international clearing house.
Design/methodology/approach
The systems postulate is used: the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Specifically, the 2007 Godley‐Lavoie model is exploited.
Findings
Domestic banking arrangements are institutionally fragile; they import stability from their central banks. In like manner, relations between central banks must be conducted under a common metric, a world money.
Originality/value
The paper shows that a technical argument for a multilateral clearing house will not be found. The author teases “implicit dynamics” (Stephen Turnovsky) out of national income identities.
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Kamrul Hassan, Ruhul Salim and Harry Bloch
This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries…
Abstract
This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries over 1980–2015 period are used to estimate the empirical model. Using fixed effect model the paper finds that different age cohorts have a significant influence on the real exchange rates in the sample countries. The results are mostly consistent with the theoretical framework discussed in the paper and also with the findings of previous studies in this area. These results have important policy implications given the fact that the population is ageing in almost all the OECD economies these days.
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Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah and Hamizun Bin Ismail
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether current account imbalances – surpluses or deficits – are “excessive” and hence constitute a valid concern. The second objective…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether current account imbalances – surpluses or deficits – are “excessive” and hence constitute a valid concern. The second objective is to assess the degree of capital mobility by comparing the variance of the current account derived from the intertemporal model with that of the actual current account.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper addresses the issues by constructing the intertemporal model using annual data between 1960 and 2006. The authors applied the F‐test, the Bartlett test and the Siegel‐Tukey test to formally validate for equality of the variances of the optimal and actual consumption smoothing current accounts.
Findings
Based on vector autoregressive model, it was found that the present value of future net output closely reflects the evolution of the current account series with a small (insignificant) deviation between the actual and the estimated consumption‐smoothing current account. The results show that the hypothesis of full‐consumption smoothing could not be rejected by the data for the full sample period, implying that the degree of capital mobility was quite high, even during the post‐1997 period. The variance ratio of the actual current account to the optimal current account is not statistically greater than one. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no evidence to suggest inappropriate use of capital flows over the entire sample period under investigation.
Originality/value
The authors relied on a more general framework, as suggested by Bergin and Sheffrin, which allows real interest rate to affect current account in order to provide a new perspective on Thailand's current account balance.
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Carmela Barbera, Enrico Guarini and Ileana Steccolini
Studies on how accounting is involved in financial crises and austerity are limited. The context of austerity provides an interesting opportunity to explore the role of accounting…
Abstract
Purpose
Studies on how accounting is involved in financial crises and austerity are limited. The context of austerity provides an interesting opportunity to explore the role of accounting in shaping governmental financial resilience, i.e. the capacity of governments to cope with shocks affecting their financial conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on a multiple case analysis of eight Italian municipalities, this paper explores how accounting contributes to the government capacities which are used to anticipate and respond to shocks affecting public finances.
Findings
Municipalities cope with financial shocks differently; accounting can support self–regulation and can affect internally-led or externally-led adaptation. Different combinations of anticipatory and coping capacities lead to different responses to shocks.
Practical implications
The findings can be useful for public managers, policymakers and oversight bodies for strengthening governmental financial resilience in the face of crises and austerity.
Originality/value
The results provide evidence of the conditions, contexts, processes under which accounting becomes a medium which can support both anticipation of and coping with financial shocks, supporting cuts in some cases and resistance in the short run or driving long-term changes intended to maintain public services as much intact as possible. This highlights the existence of different patterns of governmental financial resilience and thus indicates ways of best preserving the service of the public interest.
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Nasim S. Shirazi, Laura A. Kuanova, Adilbek Ryskulov and Aziya G. Mukusheva
This paper aims to take stock of the Islamic finance experience and aims to identify an approach for further development in Kazakhstan, using qualitative and quantitative…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to take stock of the Islamic finance experience and aims to identify an approach for further development in Kazakhstan, using qualitative and quantitative assessments.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents a conceptual framework based on literature review and content analysis. Furthermore, the study uses a survey-based methodology to collect data and determine the prospects, challenges and possible remedies. The quantitative parameters of the potential of Islamic finance in Kazakhstan are based on the assessment of funds on bank deposits, which can be considered potential resources for Islamic financial instruments.
Findings
The results suggest improving the legal framework and institutional environment to grow Islamic finance in the country. Raising trust levels in a Shariah-based system within the local population, reducing transaction costs and reducing information asymmetry allow raising public awareness of Islamic finance and integrating Islamic finance into the conventional financial system.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is not free from limitations and does not focus on implementing the suggested results.
Social implications
This work elaborates in what way the Islamic finance advancement affects the development of economics and focuses on co-financing of real asset-based projects, with the risk and loss sharing; charity; strict prohibitions on the financing of haram activities, pseudo-needs; and subordination of the individual’s interests to society.
Originality/value
The proposed study presents originalities and it identifies the significant challenges and barriers for further Islamic financial industry development in Kazakhstan by professionals survey. Furthermore, the study assesses potential Islamic finance assets and provides recommendations for successful Islamic finance advancement, considering the peculiarities of the national economy.
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