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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 23 May 2019

Krishna Reddy, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar and Marriam Rao

The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the late-stage contrarian strategy of Malin and Bornholt (2013) for the period March 2011‒March 2016.

Findings

The results show that there is a long-term return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market for the period March 2011‒March 2016. When portfolios are in the formation period (P=24 months), the excess returns are significant in the holding period, Q=6, 9, 12, 24 months. Further, there is also a significant short-term momentum effect in the Shanghai A stock market. For the robustness check, a new reversal factor was introduced into the Fama‒French three-factor model. Results show that portfolios have a smaller size and have lower book-to-market ratios; the return reversal factor explains a portion of the abnormal returns and coefficient of the reversal effect is significant.

Research limitations/implications

The authors caution readers from generalizing the findings of this study, as the sample is small and the focus is only on A stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Originality/value

The present research expands the current literature by providing a comprehensive information about the presence of the long-term and short-term return reversal effects in Shanghai A stock market. Furthermore, the Chinese stock markets have distinctive features in comparison to the developed stock markets in terms of government control, institutional structure, liquidity, cultural background, etc. Such differences affect the pattern in stock returns compared with those observed in developed stock markets. Contrary to previous studies, the present study also accounts for robustness checks. Finally, it also evaluates the possible reasons for the return reversal effect in the Shanghai market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 45 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 June 2019

Srikanth Parthasarathy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the short horizon stock behavior following large price shocks in the Indian stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the short horizon stock behavior following large price shocks in the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The author followed the methodology developed by Pritamani and Singhal (2001) to the short horizon stock behavior following large price shocks. Multivariate regression has also been used to test the robustness of the evidenced results.

Findings

The abnormal return following large one-day price changes were not found to be important. However, large price one-day changes, conditioned with volume, evidenced significant reversals and momentum over the following 20-day period. Large price changes accompanied by low volume exhibited significant reversals and suggests significant economic profits. The large price changes accompanied by high volume exhibited continuations.

Research limitations/implications

Large price changes accompanied by low volume exhibited significant reversals and suggested significant economic profits. The large price changes with high volume exhibited continuations. The contrarian strategy of buying low-volume one-day losers and selling one-day winners produced significant short horizon economic profits in the Indian stock market directly contradicting the efficient market hypothesis and has behavioral implications.

Practical implications

In this paper, the author has unearthed significant simple profitable trading strategies based on reversals and continuation following large one-day price changes with potential for significant economic profits.

Originality/value

This paper provides a practical framework for profitable trading strategies based on reversals and continuation following large one-day price changes with a potential for significant economic profits. The analysis of short horizon stock behavior following large price shocks conditional on volume based on the chosen methodology has not been attempted so far in the Indian stock market.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 June 2021

Mohamed Shaker Ahmed

The present research aims to examine a range of momentum trading strategies for the tourism and hospitality sector.

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Abstract

Purpose

The present research aims to examine a range of momentum trading strategies for the tourism and hospitality sector.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper followed the methodology of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) to construct the portfolios. In this methodology, all portfolios were formed and evaluated by their cumulative stock returns over the past J periods and holding the position for the next K periods. In total, nine formation and holding periods were used, represented by 3, 6 and 12. For example, strategy 3–3 (that is, strategy with J = 3 and K = 3) refers to the strategy that stocks are ranked based on their previous three months and then held for the next three months.

Findings

The findings demonstrated that none of these momentum investing strategies was profitable. Most of the results, however, show positive, but insignificant momentum returns. This finding can be interpreted as price reversal over a horizon of three to twelve months in the US hospitality and tourism sector. These results are robust to size, different formation and holding combinations, beta and turnover.

Research limitations/implications

Regarding the research limitations, this paper only considers the US tourism and hospitality sector. Therefore, the extension of results to other developed and developing markets should be taken carefully. Also, this paper relies only on the methodology of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). Other methodologies could be suitable avenues for future research.

Practical implications

Investors and portfolio managers who seek for earning abnormal returns by investing in the US HT stocks can attain their hopes by constructing portfolios based on existing guidelines in the literature and adopting a short-term reversal trading strategy or by buying past losers and selling past winners of the US tourism and hospitality stocks.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the hospitality finance literature by offering the investors who are interested in the US hospitality and tourism sector an uncomplicated trading rule that uses real return data and is expected to generate actual returns. Moreover, the momentum strategy of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) is never used in the hospitality finance literature.

研究目的

本研究旨在探討各種可應用於旅遊及酒店業的動量交易策略。

研究設計/方法/理念

本文按照 Jegadeesh 和 Titman(1993)的研究方法來建造投資組合。使用這研究方法時,所有投資組合均以它們在過去J 時期的累積股票收益和在未來K 時期的持倉來建立及評價的。九個組成方式及持有期被使用,以3、6、12來表示。例如,策略3-3(那就是說,該策略以J = 3和 K = 3)指的策略是以有關的股票基於過去三個月而被分等級,繼而在未來三個月被持有。

研究結果

研究結果顯示,這些投資策略全沒帶來利潤;唯大部分結果顯示正動能策略報酬,雖報酬是微不足道的。這研究結果或許可理解為在美國酒店及旅遊業為期三至十二個月的價格逆轉。這些結果就規模、不同組成方式和持有組合、beta 和成交量而言是強而有力的。

研究的局限/意義

就研究的局限而言,本文只是考慮美國的酒店及旅遊業;因此,如把研究結果伸延至其它已開發或發展中的市場,則需小心處理。另外,本文只依賴 Jegadeesh 和 Titman(1993)的研究方法,就此,使用其它研究方法會是日後相關研究的適當途徑。

實際的意義

欲透過投資於美國酒店及旅遊股票而尋求賺取異常收益的投資者和投資組合經理可如願以償,方法是基於文獻內現存的準則建造投資組合,以及採用短期的逆轉交易策略,或買入美國酒店及旅遊業過去輸家及賣出過去贏家。

研究的原創性/價值

本研究為酒店金融文獻作出貢獻,因研究為對美國酒店及旅遊業有興趣的投資者提供了使用實際收益數據及預期可創造實際回報的簡單交易規則;而且, Jegadeesh 和 Titman(1993)的動量策略從未在酒店金融文獻內被使用過。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2021

Tobias Kellner and Dominik Maltritz

The purpose of this study is to analyze market inefficiencies in the market for cryptocurrencies by providing a comprehensive analysis of short-term (over)reactions that follow…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze market inefficiencies in the market for cryptocurrencies by providing a comprehensive analysis of short-term (over)reactions that follow significant price changes of such currencies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study identifies and analyzes overreactions and mispricing in markets for cryptocurrencies by applying a broad set of thresholds that depend on market-specific dynamics and volatilities. This study also analyzes the returns on days following abnormal returns and identifies significant differences from normal returns using the t-test and the Mann–Whitney U-test. The researchers further complement the literature by using end-of-the-day returns in addition to high-low returns. Additionally, this study considers a broad sample of 50 cryptocurrencies for an expanded time span (2015–2020) that includes the big currencies as well as smaller currencies.

Findings

Findings detect the existence of overreactions and, thus, market inefficiencies in crypto markets. The findings for different methodological approaches are similar, which underpins the robustness of the findings. By considering a broad sample that includes small and big currencies, we can show the existence of a market size effect. By considering a broad set of thresholds, the authors further found evidence for a magnitude effect, which means that higher initial abnormal returns are related to higher inefficiencies.

Practical implications

This paper has practical implications. Market inefficiencies were detected, which can be used in practical trading to obtain excess returns. In fact, methodological approach of this study and its results can be used to derive a strategy for trading in cryptocurrencies that can be easily implemented. Based on the study’s findings, the authors can expect positive access returns by applying this trading strategy.

Originality/value

The authors complement the literature on market inefficiencies and mispricing in crypto markets by analyzing price patterns after initial abnormal returns. Researchers contribute by applying different methodological approaches in addition to the approaches used so far, by considering a set of different thresholds and by applying a much broader data set that enables the study to analyze additional aspects.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 12 December 2007

Vu Thang Long Pham, Do Quoc Tho Nguyen and Thuy-Duong Tô

This chapter aims to expand the overreaction literature by examining whether the price reversals occur in the short-term period (i.e., 3 days) and long-term period (i.e., up to 20…

Abstract

This chapter aims to expand the overreaction literature by examining whether the price reversals occur in the short-term period (i.e., 3 days) and long-term period (i.e., up to 20 days), following large 1-day price changes in Asia-Pacific markets over the period 2001–2005. Our results based on firm data in three Asia-Pacific markets, namely, Australia, Japan, and Vietnam, and static and dynamic measures of large price changes indicate the followings. First, stock prices tend to reverse over the short-term period after large price changes. Second, in the case of large price declines defined by arbitrary trigger values, investors may earn profit from exploiting the phenomena of price reversals; however, the profit is not large enough to exploit since it is less than the profit from passive funds. This result is supportive of the weak form of efficient market hypothesis. Third, we find mixed evidence of long run price reversal across markets. Forth, market conditions (i.e., bear or bull) may not explain the magnitude of price reversals. Finally, the dynamic measures of large price changes based on individual firms provide more consistent evidence across markets, which is supportive of short-term price reversals and overreaction hypothesis. This evidence exists in the emerging market of Vietnam as well as developed Australian and Japanese markets.

Details

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets: Integration, Innovation and Challenges
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1471-3

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Myounghwa Sim and Hee-Eun Kim

The authors investigate the effect of a short-term stock return reversal on the term structure of momentum profits in the Korean stock market following Goyal and Wahal (2015)…

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Abstract

The authors investigate the effect of a short-term stock return reversal on the term structure of momentum profits in the Korean stock market following Goyal and Wahal (2015). Their empirical findings show that the term structure of momentum is more pronounced when a return reversal lasts up to two months but is substantially weakened when past performance over the last two months is not taken into account for portfolio formation. Their evidence suggests that the term structure of momentum profitability arises primarily from a carryover of the return reversal from the previous two months.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 August 2020

Krishna Reddy, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar, Nawazish Mirza and Fangwei Shi

The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite 50 index.

Design/methodology/approach

To capture overreaction effect in the stock listed at SSE 50 Index, a time series analysis of average cumulative abnormal return within a unified framework is applied for the period of January 2009 to December 2015. From these loser and winner portfolios, contrarian strategy is applied to build arbitrage portfolio, which is the difference of mean reversions between loser and winner portfolios. The portfolio construction is based on a 12-month formation period and 6-month testing period for intermediate-term analysis and. for short-term analysis, 6 month formation and 3 month testing periods. The authors also applied regression analysis to test a return reversal effect for the sampled period.

Findings

Results show that contrarian strategy yields positive excess returns for the arbitrage portfolio for most of the testing periods. The intermediate baseline case shows the arbitrage portfolio producing an average excess return of 14.1%, while even the short-term one produces 4%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. The study finds asymmetrical overreactions in the SSE especially for loser portfolios. The biggest winner and loser portfolios follow the mean reversal effect. Moreover, before-after test for the biggest winner and loser portfolios shows that the losers recovered and beat the market immediately.

Practical implications

The study could benefit government, policy makers and regulators by studying how presence of more individual investors than institutional investors of China stock market leads to more irrational decisions giving rise to volatility. The regulators could build favourable policies for institutional investors to give them incentive to invest more than individual investors through which market volatility could be controlled.

Originality/value

This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. The authors provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.

Contribution to Impact

This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. We provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2023

Leilei Shi, Xinshuai Guo, Andrea Fenu and Bing-Hong Wang

This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market equilibrium price, in which traders' momentum, reversal and interactive behaviors play roles.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors select intraday cumulative trading volume distribution over price as revealed preferences. An equilibrium price is a price at which the corresponding cumulative trading volume achieves the maximum value. Based on the existence of the equilibrium in social finance, the authors propose a testable interacting traders' preference hypothesis without imposing the invariance criterion of rational choices. Interactively coherent preferences signify the choices subject to interactive invariance over price.

Findings

The authors find that interactive trading choices generate a constant frequency over price and intraday dynamic market equilibrium in a tug-of-war between momentum and reversal traders. The authors explain the market equilibrium through interactive, momentum and reversal traders. The intelligent interactive trading preferences are coherent and account for local dynamic market equilibrium, holistic dynamic market disequilibrium and the nonlinear and non-monotone V-shaped probability of selling over profit (BH curves).

Research limitations/implications

The authors will understand investors' behaviors and dynamic markets through more empirical execution in the future, suggesting a unified theory available in social finance.

Practical implications

The authors can apply the subjects' intelligent behaviors to artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning and financial technology.

Social implications

Understanding the behavior of interacting individuals or units will help social risk management beyond the frontiers of the financial market, such as governance in an organization, social violence in a country and COVID-19 pandemics worldwide.

Originality/value

It uncovers subjects' intelligent interactively trading behaviors.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 September 2014

Emilios C. Galariotis

– The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research.

Design/methodology/approach

Critical review and discussion of the literature.

Findings

The extant literature is dynamic and is typified by a number of open questions.

Research limitations/implications

The open questions in the literature relate mainly to the driving forces of investment performance, and the role of risk and asset pricing as well as behavioral human traits. The literature is vast and therefore difficult to classify, cover and discuss.

Practical implications

The paper indicates the possible need for: the development of different asset pricing models and propositions that can have practical implications at a more international context.

Originality/value

The paper provides a critical review of the literature and identifies open issues for future research.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Sanjay Sehgal and Sakshi Jain

– The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one factor (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)) and multi-factor model (Fama-French (FF) model and four factor model involving three FF factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor).

Findings

After controlling for short-term momentum (up to 12 months) as documented by Sehgal and Jain (2011), the authors observe that weak reversals emerge for the sample stocks. The risk model CAPM fails to account for these long-run prior return patterns. FF three-factor model is able to explain long-term prior return patterns in stock returns with the exception of 36-12-12 strategy. The value factor plays an important role while the size factor does not explain cross-section of average returns. Momentum patterns exist in long-term sector returns, which are stronger for long-term portfolio formation periods. Further, the authors construct sector factor and observe that prior returns patterns in stock returns are partially absorbed by this factor.

Research limitations/implications

The findings are relevant for investment analysts and portfolio managers who are continuously tracking global markets, including India, in pursuit of extra normal returns.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 2000