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This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

Background: The annual average daily traffic (AADT) data from road segments are critical for roadway projects, especially with the decision-making processes about operations, travel demand, safety-performance evaluation, and maintenance. Regular updates help to determine traffic patterns for decision-making. Unfortunately, the luxury of having permanent recorders on all road segments, especially low-volume roads, is virtually impossible. Consequently, insufficient AADT information is acquired for planning and new developments. A growing number of statistical, mathematical, and machine-learning algorithms have helped estimate AADT data values accurately, to some extent, at both sampled and unsampled locations on low-volume roadways. In some cases, roads with no representative AADT data are resolved with information from roadways with similar traffic patterns.

Methods: This study adopted an integrative approach with a combined systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis (MA) to identify and to evaluate the performance, the sources of error, and possible advantages and disadvantages of the techniques utilized most for estimating AADT data. As a result, an SLR of various peer-reviewed articles and reports was completed to answer four research questions.

Results: The study showed that the most frequent techniques utilized to estimate AADT data on low-volume roadways were regression, artificial neural-network techniques, travel-demand models, the traditional factor approach, and spatial interpolation techniques. These AADT data-estimating methods' performance was subjected to meta-analysis. Three studies were completed: R squared, root means square error, and mean absolute percentage error. The meta-analysis results indicated a mixed summary effect: 1. all studies were equal; 2. all studies were not comparable. However, the integrated qualitative and quantitative approach indicated that spatial-interpolation (Kriging) methods outperformed the others.

Conclusions: Spatial-interpolation methods may be selected over others to generate accurate AADT data by practitioners at all levels for decision making. Besides, the resulting cross-validation statistics give statistics like the other methods' performance measures.

A country’s institutional environment influences every facet of its business. This paper aims to identify institutional factors (state ownership, government attention on employment and employees’ educational background) that affect the asymmetric cost behavior in China.

Using 2,570 listed firms’ data between 2002 and 2015, we use empirical models to explore the effects of state ownership, government attention on employment and employees’ educational background on the asymmetric cost behavior in China.

This study found that the asymmetric cost behavior of central state-owned enterprises (CSOEs) is greater than local state-owned enterprises (LSOEs). Meanwhile, the empirical results show that government attention on employment is reflected in five-year government plans, and employees’ educational backgrounds are positively associated with asymmetric cost behavior.

This study contributes to the economic theory of sticky costs, institutional theory and asymmetric cost behavior literature by providing evidence that shows how government intervention and employee educational background limit the flexibility of corporate cost adjustments. Additionally, this study provides guidance to policymakers by showing how government long-term plans affect firm-level resource adjustment decisions.

This paper aims to investigate the entrepreneurial behaviours exhibited by commercial smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, focusing on their socio-economic characteristics, and considers their implication for outcomes of livelihood resilience in a resource-constrained and turbulent rural context.

The study used survey data collected from 430 smallholder farmers in Masvingo province, Zimbabwe. Using a two-step cluster analysis, the study constructed a typology of farmers based on their entrepreneurial behaviour and socio-economic characteristics.

The results revealed that commercial smallholder farmers are heterogeneous in terms of their entrepreneurial behaviours. Four clusters were identified: non-entrepreneurial, goal-driven, means-driven and ambidextrous. Beyond their entrepreneurial behaviours, these clusters significantly differ in the socio-economic characterises (gender, age, education levels, farm size, proximity to the market and social connection) and farm performance (seasonal sales per hectare and farm income per hectare).

The typology framework relating farmers’ entrepreneurial behaviours to their socio-economic characteristics and business performance is important to tailor and therefore improve the effectiveness of farmer entrepreneurship programmes and policies. In particular, tailoring farmer entrepreneurship education is crucial to distribute land, finance and market resources in purposive ways to promote a combination of smallholder farmers’ effectual and causal behaviours at an early stage of their farm ventures.

Researchers still know little about which farmers’ behaviours are entrepreneurial and how these behaviours manifest in action during their commercial farm activities. This research leverages effectuation and causation theory to unveil previously overlooked distinctions on farmers’ entrepreneurial behaviours, thereby enhancing a more grounded understanding of farmer entrepreneurship in a resource-constrained context.

Despite being one of the most used dependent variables in expatriate management research, no clear-cut understanding exists of what expatriate success means. Thus, this study aims to propose an integrative definition of expatriate success by providing an overview of expatriate success's dimensions, antecedents, and their interplay.

A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to achieve the purpose. A total of 249 empirical studies (quantitative 111, qualitative 50, mixed-methods 17), literature reviews (67) and meta-analyses (4) on expatriate success were reviewed from Web of Science and Scopus databases published from 1990 until December 2021. The study selection criteria followed the PRISMA flowchart steps, and then descriptive and network analyses were performed to identify expatriates' success dimensions, antecedents and their interplay.

The findings show the interplay among antecedents and dimensions of expatriate success across three levels (individual, interpersonal and organisational) to clarify the concept of expatriate success. Also, the study offers a comprehensive definition of expatriate success based on the dimensions identified.

The suggested definition of expatriate success elucidates the “atheoretical”, multidimensional and socially constructed nature of the construct and hence, calls for more “theoretical”, multidimensional and subjective considerations of the term to ground human resource management practices addressed to attain expatriates' success.

This paper provides an integrative definition of expatriate success, giving greater insight into the construct, in addition to critically reflecting on it.

This paper explores how conflicting institutional logics shape the behaviors of macro- and micro-level actors in their use of a calculative practice. Thereby, this paper explains how quantification can undermine the intended purpose of a governance system based on a single number.

The study draws upon the literature on calculative practices and institutional logics to present the case of how a single number—specifically the conversion factor for Atlantic Cod, established by macro-level actors for the purposes of governance within the Norwegian fishing industry—is interpreted and used by micro-level actors in the industry. The study is based on documents, field observations and interviews with fishers, landing facilities, and control authorities.

The use of the conversion factor, while intended to protect fish stock and govern industry actions, does not always align with the institutional logics of micro-level actors. Especially during the winter season, these actors may seek to serve their interests, leading to potential system gaming. The reliance on a single number that overlooks seasonal nuances can motivate unintended behaviors, undermining the governance system’s intentions.

Integrating the literature on calculative practices with an institutional logics perspective, this study offers novel insights into the challenges of using quantification for the governance of complex industries. In particular, the paper reveals that when the logics of macro- and micro-level actors conflict in a single-number governance system, unintended outcomes arise due to a domination of the macro-level logics.

This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage.

Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test.

The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application.

The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results.

This study aims to explore the smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its adaptation options (changing crop variety; improved crop and livestock; soil and water conservation [SWC]; and irrigation practices) and drought indices in the Dire Dawa Administration Zone, Eastern Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional household survey was used. A structured interview schedule for respondent households for key informants and focus group discussions were used. This study used both descriptive statistics and an econometric model. The model was used to compute the determinants of climate adaptation options in the study area. Drought characterization was carried out by DrinC software.

The results revealed households adapted to selected adaptation options. The model results confirmed that education level, farm size, tropical livestock units (TLUs) and access to agricultural extension services have positive and significant impacts on changing crop variety by 0.0014%, 0.045%, 0.032% and 0.035%, respectively. The likelihood of farmers’ decisions to use adaptation strategies (family size, TLU, agricultural extension service and distance from the market) has positive and significant impacts on SWC. The reconnaissance drought index (RDI6) of ONDJFM and AMJJAS showed extreme and severe drought index values of −2.88 and −1.96, respectively.

This study used a locally adopted climate change adaptation intervention for smallholder farmers, revealing the importance of drought characterization indices both seasonally and annually.

Heavy rainfall is one of the main causes of the degradation of historic rammed Earth architecture. For this reason, ensuring the conservation thereof entails understanding the factors involved in these risk situations. The purpose of this study is to research three past events in which rainfall caused damage and collapse to historic rammed Earth fortifications in Andalusia in order to analyse whether it is possible to prevent similar situations from occurring in the future.

The three case studies analysed are located in the south of Spain and occurred between 2017 and 2021. The hazard presented by rainfall within this context has been obtained from Art-Risk 3.0 (Registration No. 201999906530090). The vulnerability of the structures has been assessed with the Art-Risk 1 model. To characterise the strength, duration, and intensity of precipitation events, a workflow for the statistical use of GPM and GSMaP satellite resources has been designed, validated, and tested. The strength of the winds has been evaluated from data from ground-based weather stations.

GSMaP precipitation data is very similar to data from ground-based weather stations. Regarding the three risk events analysed, although they occurred in areas with a torrential rainfall hazard, the damage was caused by non-intense rainfall that did not exceed 5 mm/hour. The continuation of the rainfall for several days and the poor state of conservation of the walls seem to be the factors that triggered the collapses that fundamentally affected the restoration mortars.

A workflow applied to vulnerability and hazard analysis is presented, which validates the large-scale use of satellite images for past and present monitoring of heritage structure risk situations due to rain.

This study aims to analyze the perceptions of smallholder farmers on climate change and events and further explores climate change adaptation strategies and associated challenges. The findings provide useful information for enhancing the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to adjust to climate-related hazards and improve their resilience and disaster preparedness in northern Ghana.

This study uses a multistage sampling procedure and sample size of 150 farmers, the Binary Probit Model (BPM), to identify and examine the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Also, the constraints of adaptation were analyzed using Kendall’s coefficient of concordance.

The results from the BPM and statistics of Kendall’s coefficient revealed that the farm risk level, ability to adapt, farmer’s income, age, farming experience, climate change awareness and extension visits were factors that significantly influenced the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers (in order of importance). The majority (60%) of the farmers ranked farm risk level as the major constraint to adopting climate change strategies.

The findings of this study enhance understanding on access to relevant and timely climate change adaptation information such as an early warning to farmers during the start of the farming/rainy season to support their adaptive responses to climate change.