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While quantification and performance measurement have proliferated widely in academia and the business world, management and organization scholars increasingly agree on the need for a more in-depth focus on the complex dynamics embedded in the construction, use and effects of quantitative measures (pertaining to the thread of research called ethnostatistics). This paper develops a pluralistic method for conducting ethnostatistical research in organizational settings. Whilst presenting practical techniques for conducting research in live settings, it also discusses how historical approaches which focus on source criticism and contextual reconstruction could overcome the limitations of ethnostatistics.

The methodological approach of this paper encompasses an in-depth discussion of the ethnostatistical method, its underlying assumptions and its methodological limitations. Based on this analysis, the authors propose a pluralistic method (model) for conducting ethnostatistical research in organizational settings based on the integration of 1) research practices employed by one of the authors conducting ethnostatistical research in a large multinational organization and 2) best practices from ethnographic and historical research.

This paper suggests how historical approaches can successfully join ethnostatistical enquiries in an attempt to overcome some limitations in existing conventional methods. The developed framework explores four levels of analysis (ethnography, statistics at work, rhetoric of statistics and history of statistics) and suggests practical approaches for each level that can contribute to strengthening the research output and overcoming limitations when using ethnostatistics.

This paper contributes to the ethnostatistical field by discussing the intersection between history and ethnography and the ways for their complementary use in organizational and management research on quantification processes. As such it offers unique insights and hands-on experience from conducting ethnostatistical enquiries in live organizational settings.

The operating wagon records were produced from distinct railway information systems, which resulted in the wagon routing record with the same oriental destination (OD) was different. This phenomenon has brought considerable difficulties to the railway wagon flow forecast. Some were because of poor data quality, which misled the actual prediction, while others were because of the existence of another actual wagon routings. This paper aims at finding all the wagon routing locus patterns from the history records, and thus puts forward an intelligent recognition method for the actual routing locus pattern of railway wagon flow based on SST algorithm.

Based on the big data of railway wagon flow records, the routing metadata model is constructed, and the historical data and real-time data are fused to improve the reliability of the path forecast results in the work of railway wagon flow forecast. Based on the division of spatial characteristics and the reduction of dimension in the distributary station, the improved Simhash algorithm is used to calculate the routing fingerprint. Combined with Squared Error Adjacency Matrix Clustering algorithm and Tarjan algorithm, the fingerprint similarity is calculated, the spatial characteristics are clustering and identified, the routing locus mode is formed and then the intelligent recognition of the actual wagon flow routing locus is realized.

This paper puts forward a more realistic method of railway wagon routing pattern recognition algorithm. The problem of traditional railway wagon routing planning is converted into the routing locus pattern recognition problem, and the wagon routing pattern of all OD streams is excavated from the historical data results. The analysis is carried out from three aspects: routing metadata, routing locus fingerprint and routing locus pattern. Then, the intelligent recognition SST-based algorithm of railway wagon routing locus pattern is proposed, which combines the history data and instant data to improve the reliability of the wagon routing selection result. Finally, railway wagon routing locus could be found out accurately, and the case study tests the validity of the algorithm.

Before the forecasting work of railway wagon flow, it needs to know how many kinds of wagon routing locus exist in a certain OD. Mining all the OD routing locus patterns from the railway wagon operating records is helpful to forecast the future routing combined with the wagon characteristics. The work of this paper is the basis of the railway wagon routing forecast.

As the basis of the railway wagon routing forecast, this research not only improves the accuracy and efficiency for the railway wagon routing forecast but also provides the further support of decision-making for the railway freight transportation organization.

The aim of this work is to research and design an expert diagnosis system for rail vehicle driven by data mechanism models.

The expert diagnosis system utilizes statistical and deep learning methods to model the real-time status and historical data features of rail vehicle. Based on data mechanism models, it predicts the lifespan of key components, evaluates the health status of the vehicle and achieves intelligent monitoring and diagnosis of rail vehicle.

The actual operation effect of this system shows that it has improved the intelligent level of the rail vehicle monitoring system, which helps operators to monitor the operation of vehicle online, predict potential risks and faults of vehicle and ensure the smooth and safe operation of vehicle.

This system improves the efficiency of rail vehicle operation, scheduling and maintenance through intelligent monitoring and diagnosis of rail vehicle.

This paper seeks to understand how a new elite, known as the cork aristocracy, emerged in the Bordeaux wine field, France, between 1850 and 1929 as wine merchants replaced aristocrats. Classic class and status perspectives, and their distinctive social closure dynamics, are mobilized to illuminate the individual and organizational transformations that affected elite wineries grouped in an emerging classification of the Bordeaux best wines. We build on a wealth of archives and historical ethnography techniques to surface complex status and organizational dynamics that reveal how financiers and industrialists intermediated this transition and how organizations are deeply interwoven into social change.

Climate data, including historical climate observations and climate model outputs, are often used in climate impact assessments, to explore potential climate futures. However, characteristics often associated with “islandness”, such as smallness, land boundedness and isolation, may mean that climate impact assessment methods applied at broader scales cannot simply be downscaled to island settings. This paper aims to discuss information needs and the limitations of climate models and datasets in the context of small islands and explores how such challenges might be addressed.

Reviewing existing literature, this paper explores challenges of islandness in top-down, model-led climate impact assessment and bottom-up, vulnerability-led approaches. It examines how alternative forms of knowledge production can play a role in validating models and in guiding adaptation actions at the local level and highlights decision-making techniques that can support adaptation even when data is uncertain.

Small island topography is often too detailed for global or even regional climate models to resolve, but equally, local meteorological station data may be absent or uncertain, particularly in island peripheries. However, rather than viewing the issue as decision-making with big data at the regional/global scale versus with little or no data at the small island scale, a more productive discourse can emerge by conceptualising strategies of decision-making with unconventional types of data.

This paper provides a critical overview and synthesis of issues relating to climate models, data sets and impact assessment methods as they pertain to islands, which can benefit decision makers and other end-users of climate data in island communities.

This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of High Speed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume for multiple consecutive days (e.g. 120 days).

By analyzing the characteristics of the historical data on daily passenger volume of HSR systems, the date and holiday labels were designed with determined value ranges. In accordance to the autoregressive characteristics of the daily passenger volume of HSR, the Double Layer Parallel Wavelet Neural Network (DLP-WNN) model suitable for the medium-term (about 120 d) forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR was established. The DLP-WNN model obtains the daily forecast result by weighed summation of the daily output values of the two subnets. Subnet 1 reflects the overall trend of daily passenger volumes in the recent period, and subnet 2 the daily fluctuation of the daily passenger volume to ensure the accuracy of medium-term forecast.

According to the example application, in which the DLP-WNN model was used for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volumes for 120 days for typical O-D pairs at 4 different distances, the average absolute percentage error is 7%-12%, obviously lower than the results measured by the Back Propagation (BP) neural network, the ELM (extreme learning machine), the ELMAN neural network, the GRNN (generalized regression neural network) and the VMD-GA-BP. The DLP-WNN model was verified to be suitable for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR.

This study proposed a Double Layer Parallel structure forecast model for medium-term daily passenger volume (about 120 days) of HSR systems by using the date and holiday labels and Wavelet Neural Network. The predict results are important input data for supporting the line planning, scheduling and other decisions in operation and management in HSR systems.

Metropolitan areas suffer from frequent road traffic congestion not only during peak hours but also during off-peak periods. Different machine learning methods have been used in travel time prediction, however, such machine learning methods practically face the problem of overfitting. Tree-based ensembles have been applied in various prediction fields, and such approaches usually produce high prediction accuracy by aggregating and averaging individual decision trees. The inherent advantages of these approaches not only get better prediction results but also have a good bias-variance trade-off which can help to avoid overfitting. However, the reality is that the application of tree-based integration algorithms in traffic prediction is still limited. This study aims to improve the accuracy and interpretability of the models by using random forest (RF) to analyze and model the travel time on freeways.

As the traffic conditions often greatly change, the prediction results are often unsatisfactory. To improve the accuracy of short-term travel time prediction in the freeway network, a practically feasible and computationally efficient RF prediction method for real-world freeways by using probe traffic data was generated. In addition, the variables’ relative importance was ranked, which provides an investigation platform to gain a better understanding of how different contributing factors might affect travel time on freeways.

The parameters of the RF model were estimated by using the training sample set. After the parameter tuning process was completed, the proposed RF model was developed. The features’ relative importance showed that the variables (travel time 15 min before) and time of day (TOD) contribute the most to the predicted travel time result. The model performance was also evaluated and compared against the extreme gradient boosting method and the results indicated that the RF always produces more accurate travel time predictions.

This research developed an RF method to predict the freeway travel time by using the probe vehicle-based traffic data and weather data. Detailed information about the input variables and data pre-processing were presented. To measure the effectiveness of proposed travel time prediction algorithms, the mean absolute percentage errors were computed for different observation segments combined with different prediction horizons ranging from 15 to 60 min.

This paper proposes a heuristic, data-driven approach to the rapid performance evaluation of periodic maintenance on complex production plants. Through grouping, maintenance interval (MI)-based evaluation and performance assessment, potential nonvalue-adding maintenance elements can be identified in the current maintenance structure. The framework reduces management complexity and supports the decision-making process for further maintenance improvement.

The evaluation framework follows a prescriptive research approach. The framework is structured in three steps, which are further illustrated in the case study. The case study utilizes real-life data to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Through a case study conducted on 9,538 pieces of equipment from eight offshore oil and gas production platforms, the results show considerable potential for maintenance performance improvement, including up to a 23% reduction in periodic maintenance hours.

The problem of performance evaluation under limited data availability has barely been addressed in the literature on the plant level. The proposed framework aims to provide a quantitative approach to reducing the structural complexity of the periodic maintenance evaluation process and can help maintenance professionals prioritize the focus on maintenance improvement among current strategies.

The proposed framework is especially suitable for initial performance assessment in systems with a complex structure, limited maintenance records and imperfect data, as it reduces management complexity and supports the decision-making process for further maintenance improvement. A similar application has not been identified in the literature.

The literature on the past triggering learning in strategy practice is scant. To fill this gap, this study aims to examine the meaning of the past to learning in strategy practice and expands on the strategy-as-practice (SAP) literature. Understanding the relationship between the past and learning in strategy practice is important because learning is what keeps strategy practice in motion and remains in place, even if organizations and strategy practitioners change.

The authors used a longitudinal case study design combined with historical methods to examine how the past is embedded in present strategy practice. To capture learning in strategy practice over time, the authors applied a four-stage methodology in our analysis of document and interview data.

The authors identified four dimensions of the past embedded in the present strategy practice. These dimensions emerged from the analysis of the interviews and document data. The study’s results showed that the past appears in structures and routines, materiality, positioning and reflecting over repeated rounds of strategic planning. According to the study’s results, reflecting on strategy practice draws on past structures and routines, positioning and materiality. The past facilitates reflecting and reflecting on the past enables learning in strategy practice.

The authors constructed a conceptual model and showed that in strategy practice, reflection triggers learning. The authors contributed to theory development by demonstrating how the past is embedded in present strategy practice and is available for use by strategy practitioners. The authors showed that strategy practice is a continuous learning process.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business cycles.

To detect the local turning point of the Italian residential real estate market, the authors apply the honeycomb cycle developed by Janssen et al. (1994) based on the joint analysis of house prices and the number of transactions. To this end, the authors use a unique historical reconstruction of house price levels by Baffigi and Piselli (2019) in addition to data on transactions.

This study confirms the validity of the honeycomb model for the last four decades of the Italian housing market. In addition, the results show that the severe downsizing of the housing market is largely associated with business and credit contraction, certainly contributing to exacerbating the severity of the recession. Finally, preliminary evidence suggests that whenever a price bubble occurs, it is coincident with the start of phase 2 of the honeycomb cycle.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the honeycomb approach has been tested over such a long historical period and compared to the cyclic features of financial and real aggregates. In addition, even if the honeycomb cycle is not a model for detecting booms and busts in the housing market, the preliminary evidence might suggest a role for volume/transactions in detecting housing market bubbles.