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1 – 10 of 14Czechia's economic growth is substantially dependent on foreign trade. An independent monetary policy in a managed floating exchange rate regime gives a unique perspective on the…
Abstract
Czechia's economic growth is substantially dependent on foreign trade. An independent monetary policy in a managed floating exchange rate regime gives a unique perspective on the effects of the exchange rate on foreign trade. This chapter evaluates the effects of exchange rate development on different sectors of Czechia's foreign trade. Using disaggregated data based on trading partner and product category, the period from 1999 to 2020 is analyzed. Czechia's 10 major trading partners are included in the estimation. The relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade is assessed through a Johansen cointegration approach and modified vector error correction model. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate that the majority of the aggregate bilateral trade balances are in a long-term relationship with Czechia's gross domestic product (GDP), foreign GDP and exchange rate movements. The J-curve is proved only in chemicals and related products traded with France, manufactured goods traded with Italy and Slovakia and mineral fuels and lubricants traded with the Netherlands.
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Jan Černohorský, Liběna Černohorská and Petr Teplý
The aim of this chapter is to describe the purpose of the introduction of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank (CNB) in the period from November 2013 to April…
Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to describe the purpose of the introduction of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank (CNB) in the period from November 2013 to April 2017 and its effects on the real economy. The main reason for introducing the exchange rate commitment was concern about the possibility of a prolonged deflationary period in Czechia. Given that the standard monetary policy instruments had already been exhausted on easing the monetary policy conditions, the CNB Bank Board opted for an exchange rate commitment. The secondary objective of the exchange rate commitment was to boost the economy through the positive effect of a weaker koruna on exports. Next, we focus in more detail on the effect of the exchange rate commitment in the economy and the course of the foreign exchange interventions. Overall, we can summarize that the CNB's foreign exchange interventions were an extraordinary monetary policy instrument – in a market economy with inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate – used in extraordinary times.
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Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera
Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…
Abstract
Purpose
Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.
Design/methodology/approach
To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.
Findings
The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.
Originality/value
This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.
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Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, Iwona Piekunko-Mantiuk and Scott W. Hegerty
The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s…
Abstract
Purpose
The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.
Design/methodology/approach
Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.
Findings
One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.
Research limitations/implications
This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.
Originality/value
An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.
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Nadia Yusuf, Inass Salamah Ali and Tariq Zubair
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.
Design/methodology/approach
Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.
Findings
The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.
Research limitations/implications
The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.
Practical implications
Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.
Originality/value
The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.
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Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray
In this paper, the authors examine the causes of 2021–2023 inflation and evaluate whether raising interest rates is the right solution.
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, the authors examine the causes of 2021–2023 inflation and evaluate whether raising interest rates is the right solution.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors evaluate both the macroeconomic (too much demand) and microeconomic (monopoly pricing and supply chains) explanations for the causes of inflation.
Findings
The authors argue that the spike in inflation is due to disrupted supply chains and corporations taking advantage of the situation to raise their prices. The aggregate demand stimulus from fiscal policy had all but played out by the time inflation arose, making it an unlikely cause of said inflation.
Originality/value
The authors' paper demonstrates that raising interest rates is the wrong solution to tackling the problem of inflation, especially since it's coming from the supply side.
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Christopher McMahon and Peter Templeton
In recent years, the relationship between Manchester United fans and their club has been put under the spotlight due to the contentious relationship between the fanbase and the…
Abstract
In recent years, the relationship between Manchester United fans and their club has been put under the spotlight due to the contentious relationship between the fanbase and the club’s American owners, the Glazer family. However, the commercialisation of Manchester United and their ramping up of their associated brand accelerated massively during the 1990s, as a result of the coincident timing of the country’s glamour club returning to dominance during a period of ever-greater financial returns for top-flight success. As the undoubted commercial trailblazers in English football (and the first English club to be listed on the Stock Exchange), analysing their development during the 1990s is, arguably, the best way of understanding how and why top-flight football clubs operate the way they do and, in a knock-on effect on the league’s competitiveness, why the clubs below them can so easily fall away.
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Francesco Romanò, Mario Stojanović and Hendrik C. Kuhlmann
This paper aims to derive a reduced-order model for the heat transfer across the interface between a millimetric thermocapillary liquid bridge from silicone oil and the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to derive a reduced-order model for the heat transfer across the interface between a millimetric thermocapillary liquid bridge from silicone oil and the surrounding ambient gas.
Design/methodology/approach
Numerical solutions for the two-fluid model are computed covering a wide parametric space, making a total of 2,800 numerical flow simulations. Based on the computed data, a reduced single-fluid model for the liquid phase is devised, in which the heat transfer between the liquid and the gas is modeled by Newton’s heat transfer law, albeit with a space-dependent Biot function Bi(z), instead of a constant Biot number Bi.
Findings
An explicit robust fit of Bi(z) is obtained covering the whole range of parameters considered. The single-fluid model together with the Biot function derived yields very accurate results at much lesser computational cost than the corresponding two-phase fully-coupled simulation required for the two-fluid model.
Practical implications
Using this novel Biot function approach instead of a constant Biot number, the critical Reynolds number can be predicted much more accurately within single-phase linear stability solvers.
Originality/value
The Biot function for thermocapillary liquid bridges is derived from the full multiphase problem by a robust multi-stage fit procedure. The derived Biot function reproduces very well the theoretical boundary layer scalings.
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Xiaohui Li, Dongfang Fan, Yi Deng, Yu Lei and Owen Omalley
This study aims to offer a comprehensive exploration of the potential and challenges associated with sensor fusion-based virtual reality (VR) applications in the context of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to offer a comprehensive exploration of the potential and challenges associated with sensor fusion-based virtual reality (VR) applications in the context of enhanced physical training. The main objective is to identify key advancements in sensor fusion technology, evaluate its application in VR systems and understand its impact on physical training.
Design/methodology/approach
The research initiates by providing context to the physical training environment in today’s technology-driven world, followed by an in-depth overview of VR. This overview includes a concise discussion on the advancements in sensor fusion technology and its application in VR systems for physical training. A systematic review of literature then follows, examining VR’s application in various facets of physical training: from exercise, skill development and technique enhancement to injury prevention, rehabilitation and psychological preparation.
Findings
Sensor fusion-based VR presents tangible advantages in the sphere of physical training, offering immersive experiences that could redefine traditional training methodologies. While the advantages are evident in domains such as exercise optimization, skill acquisition and mental preparation, challenges persist. The current research suggests there is a need for further studies to address these limitations to fully harness VR’s potential in physical training.
Originality/value
The integration of sensor fusion technology with VR in the domain of physical training remains a rapidly evolving field. Highlighting the advancements and challenges, this review makes a significant contribution by addressing gaps in knowledge and offering directions for future research.
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