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This chapter develops a predictive approach to Granger causality (GC) testing that utilizes k -fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously available out-of-sample testing procedures, matching the performance of the in-sample F-test while retaining the credibility of post- sample inference. An empirical application to the Phillips curve is provided evaluating the evidence on GC between inflation and unemployment rates.

Analyses the influence of value judgements in the mechanics of testing econometric theories against empirical data. The orthodox view of mainstream, positive economics is that value judgements play no part in the above process. Contests this view; defines value judgements and shows the orthodox conception to be too narrow, compared with the meaning and use of the term in other disciplines. Reviews many published examples from the 1970s and 1980s and ways in which value judgements have affected testing procedures in economics. Hypothesis testing via econometric techniques is fraught with value judgements because the application of statistical methodology is not a determinate, neutral or objective process.

The concept and practice of e-services has become essential in business transactions. Yet there are still many organizations that have not developed e-services optimally. This is especially relevant in the context of Indonesian Airline companies. Therefore, many airline customers in Indonesia are still in doubt about it, or even do not use it. To fill this gap, this study attempts to develop a model for e-services adoption and empirically examines the factors influencing the airlines customers in Indonesia in using e-services offered by the Indonesian airline companies. Taking six Indonesian airline companies as a case example, the study investigated the antecedents of e-services usage of Indonesian airlines. This study further examined the impacts of motivation on customers in using e-services in the Indonesian context. Another important aim of this study was to investigate how ages, experiences and geographical areas moderate effects of e-services usage.

The study adopts a positivist research paradigm with a two-phase sequential mixed method design involving qualitative and quantitative approaches. An initial research model was first developed based on an extensive literature review, by combining acceptance and use of information technology theories, expectancy theory and the inter-organizational system motivation models. A qualitative field study via semi-structured interviews was then conducted to explore the present state among 15 respondents. The results of the interviews were analysed using content analysis yielding the final model of e-services usage. Eighteen antecedent factors hypotheses and three moderating factors hypotheses and 52-item questionnaire were developed. A focus group discussion of five respondents and a pilot study of 59 respondents resulted in final version of the questionnaire.

In the second phase, the main survey was conducted nationally to collect the research data among Indonesian airline customers who had already used Indonesian airline e-services. A total of 819 valid questionnaires were obtained. The data was then analysed using a partial least square (PLS) based structural equation modelling (SEM) technique to produce the contributions of links in the e-services model (22% of all the variances in e-services usage, 37.8% in intention to use, 46.6% in motivation, 39.2% in outcome expectancy, and 37.7% in effort expectancy). Meanwhile, path coefficients and t-values demonstrated various different influences of antecedent factors towards e-services usage. Additionally, a multi-group analysis based on PLS is employed with mixed results. In the final findings, 14 hypotheses were supported and 7 hypotheses were not supported.

The major findings of this study have confirmed that motivation has the strongest contribution in e-services usage. In addition, motivation affects e-services usage both directly and indirectly through intention-to-use. This study provides contributions to the existing knowledge of e-services models, and practical applications of IT usage. Most importantly, an understanding of antecedents of e-services adoption will provide guidelines for stakeholders in developing better e-services and strategies in order to promote and encourage more customers to use e-services. Finally, the accomplishment of this study can be expanded through possible adaptations in other industries and other geographical contexts.

This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy within the confines of causality testing framework. A unidirectional causal flow is established from nominal GNP to fiscal expenditures and deficits. Further testing of the data indicates that although fiscal policy does not affect real output, it impacts the CPI.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze more than three decades of theory testing published in leading operations management (OM) journals.

This piece examines the amount of theory testing, the extent to which theories are tested multiple times, and the disciplinary origins of the theories that are tested.

The analysis revealed that empirical OM researchers have increasingly responded to demands for more theory-driven knowledge over time. OM researchers are developing and using a wide array of domestic theories to understand empirical data. The examination also revealed a substantial focus on theory borrowed from other scientific fields.

The findings here suggest that OM is clearly a maturing discipline. As the discipline matures, it is important to consider to what extent borrowed theories and frameworks can offer value to OM. A preliminary vetting model is advanced in order to critically assess foreign theory. It is hoped that future screening promotes only the most useful non-domestic theory, thereby ensuring sufficient journal space for domestic theory and resulting in effective solutions to the pressing, practical problems of the OM field.

This chapter elaborates on the usefulness of embracing complexity theory, modeling outcomes rather than directionality, and modeling complex rather than simple outcomes in strategic management. Complexity theory includes the tenet that most antecedent conditions are neither sufficient nor necessary for the occurrence of a specific outcome. Identifying a firm by individual antecedents (i.e., noninnovative vs. highly innovative, small vs. large size in sales or number of employees, or serving local vs. international markets) provides shallow information in modeling specific outcomes (e.g., high sales growth or high profitability) – even if directional analyses (e.g., regression analysis, including structural equation modeling) indicate that the independent (main) effects of the individual antecedents relate to outcomes directionally – because firm (case) anomalies almost always occur to main effects. Examples: a number of highly innovative firms have low sales while others have high sales and a number of noninnovative firms have low sales while others have high sales. Breaking-away from the current dominant logic of directionality testing – null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) – to embrace somewhat precise outcome testing (SPOT) is necessary for extracting highly useful information about the causes of anomalies – associations opposite to expected and “statistically significant” main effects. The study of anomalies extends to identifying the occurrences of four-corner strategy outcomes: firms doing well in favorable circumstances, firms doing badly in favorable circumstances, firms doing well in unfavorable circumstances, and firms doing badly in unfavorable circumstances. Models of four-corner strategy outcomes advance strategic management beyond the current dominant logic of directional modeling of single outcomes.

In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error. We then discuss the Corradi and Swanson (2002) (CS) test of (non)linear out-of-sample Granger causality. Thereafter, we carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments examining the properties of the CS and a variety of other related predictive accuracy and model selection type tests. Finally, we present the results of an empirical investigation of the marginal predictive content of money for income, in the spirit of Stock and Watson (1989), Swanson (1998) and Amato and Swanson (2001).

In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put forward by the PPP revisionists

In this paper, the validity of the PPP revisionists' scientific evidence supporting long‐run PPP is questioned based on the replication of an influential review study that is considered by PPP revisionists to exhibit “some of the strongest evidence” in favour of the PPP theory.

By simulation experiments it is demonstrated that the traditional PPP unit root tests are non‐robust to the empirically identified (G)ARCH distortions. Due to (G)ARCH distortions, over‐rejections for the traditional unit root tests are shown to be a problem that potentially misleads researchers to believe that long‐run PPP holds under circumstances when it is in fact not valid. As a potential remedy to this problem, a new unit root test is introduced which is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity disturbances, and in contrast to traditional unit root tests, it exhibits no significant empirical support for the PPP theory.

The study illustrates that the PPP revisionists' unit root tests cannot reliably test the PPP hypothesis in the presence of (G)ARCH distortions, due to bad power and size properties. Perhaps it is time to conclude that, based on the currently existing research, it is virtually impossible to empirically come to a credible conclusion regarding whether long‐run PPP holds or not.

This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand.

The research design is empirical and ex post facto. This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and error correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of long-run elasticities and the dynamics of the short-run adjustment of exchange rates to changes in domestic and foreign prices. Monthly data are used for the period 1980:1 through 2015:12 (i.e. 432 observations).

Results from long-run co-integration analysis, short-run error correction models and persistence profile analysis overwhelmingly confirm the validity of PPP in these two sets of countries regardless the disparity in their relative exchange rate and price characteristics.

Curiously, several of these empirical studies and still many more, have focused their attention on the experiences of industrialized countries, with a few investigations devoted to LDCs. The evidence is even scarcer in Africa. Clearly, the acceptance of any hypothesis as a credible explanation of economic reality hinges on the robustness of the hypothesis across countries with different economic and institutional frameworks.

Knowledge of the extent to which exchange rate and relative prices can be linked in the long run is important for the design and management of inflation and the implementation of monetary policy. For instance, policy actions aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy can obtain results that are, at best, uncertain in the absence of correct characterization of the PPP dynamics. Moreover, structural and macroeconomic adjustment programs implemented in these countries to achieve economic growth and external competitiveness could be unsuccessful if flawed estimates of PPP exchange rates are retained.

Several empirical studies have been done to prove the validity or otherwise of the PPP. Unlike prior authors, this study makes a comparative study of the applicability of the PPP in selected LDC on one hand and European countries.