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Commercial banks face several risks, including credit, liquidity, operational and disruptive risks. In addition to these risks that are challenging for banks to control and manage, crises and disasters can exert substantially more destructive shocks. These shocks can exacerbate internal risks and cause severe damage to the bank's performance, leading banks to bankruptcy and closure. This study aims to facilitate achieving resilient banking policies through a model-based assessment of business continuity management (BCM) policies.

By applying a system dynamics (SD) methodology, a systemic model that includes a causal structure of the banking business is presented. To build a simulation model, data are collected from a commercial bank in Iran. By presenting the simulation model of the bank's business, the consequences of some given crises on the bank's performance are tested, and the effectiveness of risk and crisis management policies is evaluated. Vensim Personal Learning Edition (PLE) software is used to construct the simulation model.

Results indicate that the current BCM policies do not show appropriate resilience in the face of various crises. Commercial banks cannot create sustainable value for the banks' shareholders despite the possibility of profitability, as the shareholders lack adequate resilience and soundness. These commercial banks do not have the appropriate resilience for the next pandemic after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Moreover, the robustness of the current banking business model is very fragile for the banking run crisis.

A forward-looking view of resilient banking can be obtained by combining liquidity coverage, stable funding, capital adequacy and insights from stress tests. Resilient banking requires a balanced combination of robustness, soundness and profitability.

The present study is a combination of bank business management, risk and resilience management and SD simulation. This approach can analyze and simulate the dynamics of bank resilience. Additionally, present of a decision support system (DSS) to analyze and simulate the outcomes of different crisis management policies and solutions is an innovative approach to developing effective and resilient banking policies.

This study aims to investigate the effect of credit relaxation policy during the COVID-19 pandemic and its efficacy as a countercyclical policy on bank risk and stability.

Using a sample of 39 listed Indonesian banks, the authors investigate the effect of credit relaxation policy on banks’ risk and stability. Data were retrieved from Eikon DataStream from monthly financial statements from June 2019 to December 2020. The authors use panel data analysis with a fixed-effect estimator to estimate the model.

The authors find that the credit relaxation policy affects banks’ stability. The authors also find no significant relationship between the policy and bank risk measured by non-performing loans. The authors also find that the policy mainly affects small banks and both state-owned and private banks.

This research has some policy implications that issuing prompt regulations to respond to urgent situations is needed and is very important to face crisis conditions and reduce the negative impact of such crises.

Despite the growing recognition of the complex interplay between macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market dynamics, there is a significant research gap concerning their interconnectedness and return spillovers in the context of the African stock market. This leaves much to be desired, given that the financial market in Africa is arguably one of the most preferred destinations for hedge and portfolio diversification (Alagidede, 2008; Anyikwa and Le Roux, 2020). Further, like other financial markets across the globe, the increased capital flow, coupled with declining information asymmetry in Africa, has deepened intra and inter-sectoral integration within and across national borders. This has, thus, increased the susceptibility of financial markets in Africa to spillover of shocks from other sectors and jurisdictions. Additionally, while previous studies have investigated these factors individually (Asafo-Adjei et al., 2020), with much emphasis on developed markets, an all-encompassing examination of spillovers and the connectedness between the aforementioned macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market returns remains largely unexplored. This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

This study employs the novel quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model, making it the first of its kind in literature. By applying the QVAR, the study captures the potential nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between stock returns and the factors of interest across different quantiles, i.e. bearish, normal and bullish market conditions. Thus, the approach allows for a more accurate and nuanced examination of the tail dependence and extreme events, providing insights into the behaviour of the variables under extreme events.

The study revealed that connectedness and spillovers intensified under bearish and bullish market conditions. It was also observed that, among the macroeconomic shock indicators, FSI exerted the highest influence on stock returns in Africa in both bullish and normal market conditions. Across the various market regimes, the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) were net receiver of shocks.

This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. On the methodology front, this study employs the novel QVAR model, making it one of the few studies in recent literature to apply the said method.

Systemic risk is of concern for economic welfare as it can lower the credit supply to all the sectors within an economy. This study examines for the first time the complete hierarchy of variables that drive systemic risk during normal and crisis periods in Pakistan, a developing economy.

Secondary data of the bank, sector and country variables are used for the purpose of the analysis spanning from 2000 to 2020. Systemic risk is computed using marginal expected shortfall (MES). One-step and two-step system GMM is performed to estimate the impact of firm, sector and country-level variables on systemic risk.

The findings of the study highlight that sector-level variables are also highly significant in explaining the systemic risk dynamics along with bank and country-level variables. In addition, economic sensitivity influences the significance level of variables across crisis and post-crisis periods and modifies the direction of relationships in some instances.

The study examines the systemic risk of a developing economy, and findings may not be generalizable to developed economies.

The outcome of the study provides a comprehensive framework for the central bank and other regulatory authorities that can be translated into timely policies to avoid systemic financial crisis.

The negative externalities generated by systemic risk also affect the general public. The study results can be used to avoid the systemic financial crisis and resultantly save the loss of the general public's hard-earned holdings.

The firm, sector and country-level variables are modeled for the first time to estimate systemic risk across different economic conditions in a developing economy, Pakistan. The study can also act as a reference for researchers in developed economies as well regarding the role of sector-level variables in explaining systemic risk.

This study analyses the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 on government accountability regarding the employment of both national and migrant workforces by bringing evidence from an emerging market. In doing so, this study addresses if/how the government discharged its accountability to the public during this recent global health crisis, which started in late 2019, with its effects still being felt today.

This study is based on a close reading of the relevant news media (local and international), published research and official reports, as well as ten conversations with business managers to analyse the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 on government accountability in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). This study draws on insights from public choice theory in trying to understand why some governments take an economic perspective while exercising accountability to their population during the pandemic.

It was found that COVID-19 led the government to pursue plans for the localization of the professions and increase employment rates among nationals vs. foreigners or migrant workers. The crisis was exploited by the government to achieve macro socio-political and economic goals, demonstrating its accountability to citizens, rather than foreign workers. This shift shows that difficult and exceptional circumstances can present opportunities for policymakers in emerging markets to achieve national policy and political aims.

This study enhances the author’s understanding of accountability during crises (i.e. crises-induced accountability) in emerging markets. The analyses presented enrich the crisis management literature by highlighting the implicit actions of national leaders that affect the lives and well-being of their constituents, especially vulnerable groups.

As the current Coronavirus 2019 pandemic eases, international tourism, which was greatly affected by the outbreak, is gradually recovering. The attraction of countries to overseas tourists is related to their overall performance in the pandemic. This research integrates the data of vaccination of different countries, border control policy and holidays to explore their differential impacts on the overseas tourists’ intention during the pandemic. This is crucial for destinations to built their tourism resilience. It will also help countries and industry organizations to promote their own destinations to foreign tourism enterprises.

This study proposes an analysis based on panel data for ten countries over 1,388 days. The coefficient of variation is used to measure monthly differences of Chinese tourists’ intention to visit overseas country destinations.

Results show that, for tourist intention of going abroad: border control of the destination country has a significant negative impact; daily new cases in the destination country have a significant negative impact; domestic daily new cases have a significant positive impact; holidays have significant negative impact; daily vaccination of the destination countries has significant positive impact; and domestic daily vaccination have negative significant impact.

First, there is a large uncertainty in studying consumers’ willingness to travel abroad in this particular period because of unnecessary travel abroad caused by the control of the epidemic. Second, there are limitations in studying only Chinese tourists, and future research should be geared toward a broader range of research pairs.

First, from the government perspective, a humane response can earn the respect and trust of tourists. Second, for tourism industry, to encourage the public take vaccine would be beneficial for both the tourism destination and foreign tourism companies. The same effect can be achieved by helping tourists who are troubled by border control.

First, this research provides suggestions for the government and the tourism industry to deal with such a crisis in the future. Second, this study found that vaccination has a direct impact on tourism. This provides a basis for improving people’s willingness to vaccinate. Thirdly, this study proves suggestion for the destinations to build tourism resilience.

This study analyzes the unique control measures and vaccination in different countries during the pandemic, then provides suggestions for the tourism industry to prepare for the upcoming postpandemic tourism recovery. This study is valuable for improving the economic resilience of tourism destinations. Additionally, it helps to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different restrain policies around the world.

This paper aims to obtain a recent estimate of the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) had to endure to protect themselves against the risks of financial globalization. In addition, the study estimates the cost of excess reserves in emerging market economies (EMEs) using various reserve adequacy indicators that reflect potential sources of foreign exchange drains and vulnerability in EMEs' balance of payments.

This paper begins by explaining the accumulation of foreign reserves in EMDEs as a self-protection strategy against the risks of financial globalization. Next, it sheds light on the different types of economic costs of foreign reserve accumulation. Finally, it estimates the cost of foreign reserve accumulation in EMEs during the period (1990–2018) and in EMDEs during the period (1990–2015) due to data availability.

Results indicate that the cost of accumulating foreign reserves as a self-protection strategy in EMDEs and EMEs' was huge compared to their development financing needs. Applying various reserve adequacy measures demonstrates that many of the EMEs were holding inadequate precautionary reserves in 2018. Actually, this reflects the significant increase in external short term debt that many of the EMEs have witnessed since the eruption of the global financial crisis (2008). Thus increasing reserves in EMEs with weak reserve buffers and higher external debt is critical as they are more vulnerable to external shocks and capital flow reversals. Also given the estimated huge costs of accumulating foreign reserves, EMDEs should accompany it by other complementary self-protection policies and liquidity management policies to free up resources for productive investment.

The study contributes to the literature by estimating the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation imposed on EMDEs during an extended period of time that covers a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis. Also to the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that estimates the cost of excess reserves in EMEs using various reserve adequacy indicators including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessing reserve adequacy (ARA) approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic was an eye-opening experience that put to the test our crisis management competencies across many institutions, including those offered by institutions of higher education. This study aims to review the literature on international business (IB) risks and IB education (IBE) to question whether business graduates are equipped to make decisions in today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) marketplace.

While the IB literature has discussed the importance of various sources of risks on global business operations, IBE did not effectively adopt an integrative approach to building the needed risk management competencies related to those risks into our education. The authors argue that this integrative approach to teaching IB is critically needed to prepare future global managers for addressing crises, like that of the pandemic and others. Specifically, this study proposes that this integrated risk management competency can be developed through the building of “synergistic mindsets”.

This study presents a conceptual framework for the components of the synergistic mindset, with intelligence that directly links to present IB risks. These components are cultural intelligence (CQ), emotional intelligence (EQ), public policy intelligence (PPQ), digital intelligence (DQ) and orchestration intelligence (OQ).

Insights related to IBE effectiveness in addressing today’s VUCA market demands and IB risks are discussed.

The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

This paper presents a review of literature, aimed at analyzing and understanding the nexus of knowledge on the topic of government budgetary responses to COVID-19 and identifying gaps for future research directions on crisis budgeting.

A systematic literature review approach was conducted by considering scientific journal articles written in English and published through 2020–2022. The databases used for the literature search in this paper were Scopus and Web of Science, resulting in 41 articles for final review.

This review found that in a crisis, budgetary responses were greatly determined by perceived uncertainties. In the case of the COVID-19 crisis, governments seemed to prioritize economic recovery. While many studies have documented budgetary responses to the crisis, most were written in the beginning of the crisis through documentary content analysis, leaving significant research gaps. Thus, this review offers directions for future research concerning governmental response to perceived uncertainty, logic behind governments' budgeting strategies, sustainable development principles within crisis budgeting and the prioritization of economic considerations in a health crisis.

This paper is one of the first to present insights into the state of research regarding the topic of government budgeting during the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, it provides insights from the literature for anticipating future shocks and crises, along with directions for future researchers in developing their research agenda.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2023-0057