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Hydrological and climatological modeling is increasingly being used with the intent of supporting community-based climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), as well as filling critical data gaps in a region that contributes significantly to the water resources and ecosystem diversity of Asia. As the case studies presented in the previous chapters illustrate, the utility of modeling in informing and supporting CCA and DRR initiatives depends on a number of criteria, including:•appropriate model selection;•ability to interpret models to local contexts; and•community engagement that incorporates and addresses underlying vulnerabilities within the community.

There are significant challenges to meeting all three of these criteria. However, when these criteria are met, we find:•There is a clear role for modeling to support CCA. The climate is changing now and will continue to do so for several centuries, even if carbon emissions were to stabilize tomorrow. Models, and other scenario development tools, provide our best insight into what the future climate might be and resulting impacts on dynamic social, environmental, political, and economic systems.•There is a clear role for local CCA. The impacts of climate change will be felt mostly at local levels, necessitating community adaptation responses. At the same time, most of the HKH communities and countries engaged in CCA initiatives have pressing, immediate development and livelihood needs. Making current development and livelihood initiatives incorporate climate adaptation considerations is the best way to ensure that the choices made today can set us on paths of increasing resilience, rather than almost inevitable disaster, for the future.•To achieve the best of both modeling and CCA requires thoughtful and patient application of modeling, tailored to local needs, conditions, and politics, with communities engaged around all stages of generating, interpreting, and applying the results. This requires a rare combination of technical skill, cultural sensitivity, political awareness, and above all, the time to continually engage with and build relationships within the community in order to foster resilient change.

Due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in different parts of the world over the past several decades, there have been serious effects on climate. Available observational evidences indicate that regional changes in climate, particularly fluctuations in temperature and rainfall, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. International communities have tried to respond to these changing phenomena by establishing high-level Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Numerous global treaties and protocols have been formulated on climate change in different countries. However, climate change impacts are found to be most severe in the grassroots-level community, in the form of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and typhoons/cyclones, which affect the lives and livelihoods of people. Indirect impacts of climate change are observed in the form of increasing poverty and health issues in different ecosystems. Although communities are equipped with traditional knowledge and wisdom, new practices and policies are required to enable them to cope with the changing climate, thereby providing them with means to sustain their livelihoods.

Private household insurance has been relatively uncommon among households in Samoa to date. Meanwhile, numerous other adaptation interventions are also being implemented, including community-based adaptation (CBA) projects which draw on the skills of the community to address the climate change-related hazards that are expected to affect local communities. Through semi-structured interviews with community members from the urban/peri-urban area around Apia (with and without insurance) and an insurance company representative, this research explores private household natural perils insurance uptake in Samoa and the effect that the uptake of this insurance has on household engagement in other climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies such as CBA projects. Findings suggest that individuals whose homes are already insured with natural perils insurance are more likely to express more individualistic values or beliefs than those without natural perils insurance. Insured homeowners commonly framed adaptation as a technical challenge, with insurance being part of the technical and expert-led approach to prepare for, manage and recover from extreme events. In contrast, householders without insurance perceived CCA as less of a technical task and more of a social process. Those individuals with private household natural perils insurance coverage (in keeping with their more individualistic values) reported that they were less engaged in CBA projects compared to participants without insurance (who held more communalistic values). Given the importance of household participation in CBA projects, an increased uptake of insurance may have problematic outcomes for the adaptive capacity of the broader community.

Climate change is one of the major challenges confronting human society in the 21st century (Ericksen & O’Brein, 2007; Adger, Lorenzoni, & O’Brien, 2009). Mounting evidence attests that climate change is now happening in many parts of the world as evidenced by increasing mean temperature, changing precipitation patterns, rising sea level, and increasing frequency and growing intensity of extreme weather events (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007). In many parts of Asia, these climatic changes have led to massive flooding, landslides, and droughts, resulting in extensive damage to properties, assets, and human life (Cruz et al., 2007). Climate change is also exacerbating water shortages in many areas, constraining agricultural production, and threatening food security and energy supply from hydroelectric source. It is likewise causing forest fires and degradation, damaging coastal and marine resources, and increasing the risk of outbreaks of infectious diseases. Regional climate studies indicate that the worse is yet to come as far as weather-related disaster risks are concerned. If not addressed effectively, climate change could seriously frustrate the region's sustainable development and poverty-reduction efforts (ADB, 2009).

The impact of climate disasters (e.g., floods, storms, or landslides), which are generally of low intensity and high frequency, should not be overlooked in developing countries. Global experiences related to the damage due to these disasters indicate that such events can be devastating in communities that are vulnerable to hazardous impacts. Cumulative effects of climate disasters are a sign of a potential catastrophe. Moreover, the recent increase in these events poses additional issues that increase the cost of local public administration, including emergency operation and infrastructure recovery. This chapter explains key problems related to climate disasters that are increasing, particularly in the local area of developing countries, and clarifies the need to incorporate climate disaster risk reduction into public development planning and practice. The chapter also provides descriptions of the research location, approaches of the study, and the structure of this book.

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to development. Intergovernmental Committee in response to Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), with majority agreement, has pointed out that climate change is caused by human activities. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also pointed out that these serious impacts by climate change will directly affect the poorer and more vulnerable communities and nations. According to the Human Development Report 2007–2008 by United Nation Development Program (UNDP, 2008), people in rural areas are most vulnerable to climate change, because it directly affects the resources in the ecosystem on which their lives depend. Countries with newly developed economy will be seriously hit, economically and socially, within the next few decades by natural disasters such as flood, draught, and storm, which have been increasing in number and severity. Human health is also adversely affected, which has multiplying effects in different sectors.

Conceptually, reducing the risk of disasters is closely associated with adaptation processes. A fairly conventional approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) characterizes preparation as part of a continuous cycle of activities that move from disaster events through recovery (damage limitation) and risk reduction (preparation) phases until the next event occurs (Moench, 2007). Moench argues that climate change is increasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes to the spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due to increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as storm, floods, and droughts. Therefore, many of the elements identified in the cycle – strengthening of resilience, land-use planning, insurance, and the development of early warning information – should reduce vulnerability to the next event and thus, assist regions in “adapting” to the types of events that can cause disaster. However, the frequent occurrence as well as the increase in the intensity of the hydrometeorological hazards does not imply on enhanced perception and awareness of the people for preparedness, as experience is not the prime factor to it (Shaw, Shiwaku, & Kobayashi, 2004). In this sense, climate change related disaster management and risk reduction plans should be prepared targeting the concerned target population. A combination of clear and accurate warning messages with high level of preparation with an effort of self-reliance during the crisis time needs to be looked into (SEEDS, 2008).

Communities around the world are already vulnerable to disasters, the “Global Assessment Report: Disaster Risk Reduction” presents compelling new evidence of concentration of risk in many developing countries. The “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report” reports that climate change is expected to be accompanied by an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events in many parts of the world. Moreover, climate change will aggravate many of the socioeconomic factors that drive vulnerability.

In the scientific field of climate change adaptation (CCA), the focus on cities has grown steadily in recent years. Increasing population figures especially in developing countries, and overall in cities, demonstrate a key challenge for institutions, communities, economies, and the natural environment to find appropriate solutions to overcome this problem (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007). Rapid urbanization is just one of the key issues that cities have to deal with; another main challenge is how to manage the impacts from climate change like increasing numbers of natural hazards that are resulting in more frequent and intense disasters (EM-Dat, 2009; Munich Re Group, 2009).

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises 10 countries namely Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam (Fig. 1). The ASEAN region has a total land area of 4.5 million square kilometers (3.3% of the world total) and a coastline of 173,252 km (third longest in the world). It is a region that boasts of a wealth of biodiversity including 20 percent of all known plant, animal, and marine species and one-third or 284,000 km² of all coral reefs. Four biodiversity hotspots identified by Conservation International cut across a wide area of the region that includes Indo-Burma, the Philippines, Sundaland, and Wallacea.