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Hydrological and climatological modeling is increasingly being used with the intent of supporting community-based climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), as well as filling critical data gaps in a region that contributes significantly to the water resources and ecosystem diversity of Asia. As the case studies presented in the previous chapters illustrate, the utility of modeling in informing and supporting CCA and DRR initiatives depends on a number of criteria, including:•appropriate model selection;•ability to interpret models to local contexts; and•community engagement that incorporates and addresses underlying vulnerabilities within the community.

There are significant challenges to meeting all three of these criteria. However, when these criteria are met, we find:•There is a clear role for modeling to support CCA. The climate is changing now and will continue to do so for several centuries, even if carbon emissions were to stabilize tomorrow. Models, and other scenario development tools, provide our best insight into what the future climate might be and resulting impacts on dynamic social, environmental, political, and economic systems.•There is a clear role for local CCA. The impacts of climate change will be felt mostly at local levels, necessitating community adaptation responses. At the same time, most of the HKH communities and countries engaged in CCA initiatives have pressing, immediate development and livelihood needs. Making current development and livelihood initiatives incorporate climate adaptation considerations is the best way to ensure that the choices made today can set us on paths of increasing resilience, rather than almost inevitable disaster, for the future.•To achieve the best of both modeling and CCA requires thoughtful and patient application of modeling, tailored to local needs, conditions, and politics, with communities engaged around all stages of generating, interpreting, and applying the results. This requires a rare combination of technical skill, cultural sensitivity, political awareness, and above all, the time to continually engage with and build relationships within the community in order to foster resilient change.

Bhutan is the smallest country in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region and one of the least developed countries in Asia. The most imminent threat to the country related to climate change is that of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) – floods resulting from a breach in the moraine dam walls of glacial lakes that can release millions of cubic liters of water within seconds. Given the topography of the country and the stark differences in altitudes between the northern mountains and south-central plains, a GLOF event could devastate downstream communities.

The Royal Government of Bhutan (RGOB), with help from other countries and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), has undertaken several projects to prepare the country for GLOF events, recurring floods, and landslides. These projects are creating an adaptation model for the country, and based on the implementation of the pilot projects, the activities would be replicated in other parts of the country. The pilot projects are aimed at developing three broad types of resilience: infrastructural, institutional, and community resilience. The modeling of the glaciers and glacial lake system has provided the authorities with measures for structural mitigation that can help delay a major catastrophe, reduce risk, and increase infrastructural resilience. The use of modeling techniques, glacial surveys, and the development of hazard zoning maps is only one side of the coin – only half the story. It has been coupled with the development of institutional resilience to manage disaster events and community resilience to cope with and adapt to changing circumstances.

Three conclusions are established in this chapter. First, numerous climate change impacts are affecting the least developed countries in the region, and Bhutan is a pertinent example of countries and communities already at risk to a changing global climate. Second, it is important to choose the “right” models that can actually provide benefits to communities at risk. The projects in Bhutan demonstrate that adaptation activities work best when they blend different forms of resilience. Third, there are numerous barriers to successful implementation of adaptation projects. These barriers remind us that no matter how great the benefits of adaptation may be in specific communities, accomplishing those benefits in practice will take time, effort, and targeted public policy intervention.

This book aims to examine how modeling can be applicable toward local adaptation to climate change, using the Hindu Kush-Himalayas (HKH) as a case study. This introductory chapter sets the stage by summarizing mountain systems and change in the context of the HKH, especially highlighting the importance of involving mountain peoples in any discussion and work. Then, each chapter is summarized. In the final section, limitations and extensions of the work here are reported, focused on developing, testing, and implementing solutions on the terms of the people most affected without losing sight of wider contexts. Modeling is one knowledge system among many that is needed for adaptation and other development work in the HKH and other mountain areas.

The purpose of this paper is to show the complexity in dealing with climate change adaptation at the local level, and to show how social and institutional factors in addition to the ecological challenges contribute to that complexity.

This paper examines four institutional climate change activities and reveals how institutions currently address climate change, and how the Sherpas are involved in the process. It draws on three sorts of material: the interviews and observations conducted during my field research in 2010 and 2011; my personal experiences as a Sherpa woman; my recent participation in Sherpa face-to-face and online communities.

Organizing institutional climate change activities to draw international attention alone are not sufficient to address climate change adaptation issues. Communities at the local level cannot be assumed to be homogeneous entities. Institutional climate change adaptation efforts cannot assume that by reaching out to a few individuals in the region they will benefit the whole. Institutional activities have increased receptivity to scientific climate change knowledge, but it has also increased fear of an impending doom, and anger over the continuous discussion of climate change without concrete actions.

Future research in the Everest region should include residents from all ethnic groups considering their historical contacts and interactions.

It is crucial that not only the Sherpa agency (or lack of agency) or understandings are examined but the institutional engagements and delivery are also assessed to practically, effectively, and sustainably address the challenges of climate change adaptation.

The field study aimed at exploring how capacities are influenced by external factors in the context of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR).

The field study was conducted in a small rural area called Lapsibot in Lamjung district in Nepal. The article is based on a fieldwork conducted in April 2018. The different tools of data collection were inspired by the vulnerability and capacity assessment approach with a focus on various aspects of vulnerabilities and capacities with regard to disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Lapsibot.

The paper highlights that communities, in fact, need enhanced and extended capacities, not only existing inherent capacities, which are usually the main subject of capacity development in rural communities.

While there is absolutely no question of strong capacities at the community level, this paper appeals for a more in-depth investigation of an extended notion of capacities, where the effects of the rapid changes and increasing impact of the outside world are taken into consideration.

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain. Global circulation models (GCMs) have made significant contributions to the theoretical understanding of potential climate impacts, but their shortcomings in terms of assessing climate impacts soon became apparent. GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system. However, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The first generation approaches of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are derived from GCMs downscaled to produce scenarios at regional and local scales, but since the downscaled models inherit the biases of their parent GCM, they produce a simplified version of local climate. Furthermore, their output is limited to changes in mean temperature, rainfall, and sea level. For this reason, hydrological modeling with GCM output is useful for assessing impacts. The hydrological response due to change in climate variables in the Amu Darya River Basin was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling results show that there is an increase in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, percolation, and water yields. The above methodology can be practiced in this region for conducting adaptation and mitigation assessments. This initial assessment will facilitate future simulation modeling applications using SWAT for the Amu Darya River Basin by including variables of local changes (e.g., population growth, deforestation) that directly affect the hydrology of the region.

In the event of a disaster, educational institutions like schools serve as lifeline buildings. Hence, it is crucial to safeguard these buildings for the communities that may depend on the school as a disaster shelter and aid center. Thus, this paper aims to conduct a multihazard risk assessment survey at 50 schools (with 246 building blocks) in Dehradun.

The past few decades have witnessed the impact of multihazard frequency in Uttarakhand, India, due to the geographical features of the Himalayas and its neo-tectonic mountain-building process. Dehradun is the capital of Uttarakhand state and comes under seismic zone IV, which is highly prone to earthquakes.

The hazard assessment is divided into two types of surveys: first, building-level surveys that include rapid visual screening, nonstructural risk assessment and fire safety audit, and second, campus-level surveys that include vulnerability analysis for earthquake, flood, industrial hazard, landslide and wind.

This paper will list several gaps and unrecognized practices in the region that increase the schools’ multihazard risk. The study’s outcome will help prioritize the planning of disaster awareness, retrofitting execution, future construction practices and decision-making to minimize the risk and prepare the school for the upcoming disasters.

Physical data were collected by the author to determine the multihazard risk analysis in 50 schools in the Dehradun District of Uttarakhand, India. The building- and campus-level surveys have been used to generate a database for the retrofit and renovation process for each individual school to use their budget fruitfully and in a planned way. The survey conducted is more effort and a more detailed risk evaluation which necessitates effectively mitigating and ensuring the potential safety of the region’s schools.

Ladakh is an isolated arid environment in the Western Himalayas whose population relies mainly on glacial melt water. If the predicted adverse impacts of climate change occur, rising temperatures would accelerate the retreat of glaciers and place immense stress on the traditional Ladakhi agriculture and way of life. Very few studies in hydrology and glaciology currently document physical processes happening in Ladakh and only one project has combined climate data based upon measurements of temperature and precipitation, collected by the Indian Air Force in Leh town, and perceptions of local communities in order to explore the potential impacts of climate change in the area. This information constitutes the basis for climate change-related interventions of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), both local and international, and could help inform any future climate modeling. However, the quality of this data can be questioned on several points, it terms of accuracy, availability and, most importantly, usefulness. Moreover, this chapter discusses the relevance of this kind of data when the focus is placed upon the adaptation of local communities to global environmental changes where climate change may not be the primary cause. For instance, the region is also currently undergoing a rapid transition from subsistence farming to a market-based economy due to the integration of Ladakh into India and the growing influx of tourism. When addressing the broader context of environmental change, reliable, accurate, and available climate data and models could be useful only if used as part of a holistic approach. This approach requires research and interventions to combine scientific information with local knowledge and perceptions about the impacts of climate change to root the physical data in a “real world” context. It must also acknowledge other drivers of environmental changes such as unsustainable development.

Bangladesh has a long history of dealing with seasonal changes resulting in droughts and floods. Three major rivers, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) come to a confluence, forming the GBM floodplain. There is a specific time window (June to September) when most of the runoff occurs and over 90% of their combined flow is discharged into the Bay of Bengal. As a result, the seasonal monsoons result in wet and dry seasons, making Bangladesh vulnerable to both floods and droughts. Climate change will likely alter characteristics such as timing and intensity, therefore increasing the challenge of adaptation. Socioeconomic conditions and high-population density limit the country's ability to adapt to these hydro-meteorological extremes. Although climatic variability causes severe damage and loss of life in Bangladesh, examples of local adaptation to the annual rhythm of seasonal variation can be found in flood-prone areas. Scientific modeling has resulted in more robust and efficient early warning systems that have greatly decreased the loss of life from climate hazards in recent years. However, positive impacts from models are limited by complex social concerns that are pervasive across the country.