Chapter 11 Scientific and Social Uncertainties in Climate Change: The Hindu Kush-Himalaya in Regional Perspective

Abstract

Hydrological and climatological modeling is increasingly being used with the intent of supporting community-based climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), as well as filling critical data gaps in a region that contributes significantly to the water resources and ecosystem diversity of Asia. As the case studies presented in the previous chapters illustrate, the utility of modeling in informing and supporting CCA and DRR initiatives depends on a number of criteria, including:•appropriate model selection;•ability to interpret models to local contexts; and•community engagement that incorporates and addresses underlying vulnerabilities within the community.

There are significant challenges to meeting all three of these criteria. However, when these criteria are met, we find:•There is a clear role for modeling to support CCA. The climate is changing now and will continue to do so for several centuries, even if carbon emissions were to stabilize tomorrow. Models, and other scenario development tools, provide our best insight into what the future climate might be and resulting impacts on dynamic social, environmental, political, and economic systems.•There is a clear role for local CCA. The impacts of climate change will be felt mostly at local levels, necessitating community adaptation responses. At the same time, most of the HKH communities and countries engaged in CCA initiatives have pressing, immediate development and livelihood needs. Making current development and livelihood initiatives incorporate climate adaptation considerations is the best way to ensure that the choices made today can set us on paths of increasing resilience, rather than almost inevitable disaster, for the future.•To achieve the best of both modeling and CCA requires thoughtful and patient application of modeling, tailored to local needs, conditions, and politics, with communities engaged around all stages of generating, interpreting, and applying the results. This requires a rare combination of technical skill, cultural sensitivity, political awareness, and above all, the time to continually engage with and build relationships within the community in order to foster resilient change.

Citation

Opitz-Stapleton, S. and MacClune, K. (2012), "Chapter 11 Scientific and Social Uncertainties in Climate Change: The Hindu Kush-Himalaya in Regional Perspective", Lamadrid, A. and Kelman, I. (Ed.) Climate Change Modeling For Local Adaptation In The Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region (Community, Environment and Disaster Risk Management, Vol. 11), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 207-237. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2040-7262(2012)0000011017