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The aim of this paper is to propose an optimization method for determining the emergency action, in which the compatibility between emergency alternatives and the collaborative relationship between departments are considered.

The individual emergency cost and individual emergency effect of each emergency alternative are calculated. And the collaborative emergency cost and collaborative emergency effect associated with a pair of emergency alternatives are calculated. Then, a bi-objective programming model maximizing the total emergency effect and minimizing the total emergency cost is constructed. A novel nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NNSGA II) is designed to solve the constructed model, subsequently. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method, and the performance of NNSGA II is evaluated through a simulation experiment.

This paper proposes an effective method to manage complex emergency events that requires the coordinations of multiple departments. Also, this paper provides a new algorithm to determine an appropriate emergency action that performs well in managing both the emergency cost and emergency effect.

The findings contribute to the current methods in the field of emergency management. The method is used for dealing with the individual information of emergency alternatives and the collaborative information associated with a pair of alternatives.

It is of a great significance for the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine to build an accurate and reliable fault prediction model. The thrust of a liquid rocket engine is an important indicator for its health monitoring. By predicting the changing value of the thrust, it can be judged whether the engine will fail at a certain time. However, the thrust is affected by various factors, and it is difficult to establish an accurate mathematical model. Thus, this study uses a mixture non-parametric regression prediction model to establish the model of the thrust for the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine.

This study analyzes the characteristics of the least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) machine . LS-SVR is suitable to model on the small samples and high dimensional data, but the performance of LS-SVR is greatly affected by its key parameters. Thus, this study implements the advanced intelligent algorithm, the real double-chain coding target gradient quantum genetic algorithm (DCQGA), to optimize these parameters, and the regression prediction model LSSVRDCQGA is proposed. Then the proposed model is used to model the thrust of a liquid rocket engine.

The simulation results show that: the average relative error (ARE) on the test samples is 0.37% when using LS-SVR, but it is 0.3186% when using LSSVRDCQGA on the same samples.

The proposed model of LSSVRDCQGA in this study is effective to the fault prediction on the small sample and multidimensional data, and has a certain promotion.

The original contribution of this study is to establish a mixture non-parametric regression prediction model of LSSVRDCQGA and properly resolve the problem of the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine along with modeling the thrust of the engine by using LSSVRDCQGA.

This paper aims to present a simplified method to analyze the transient characteristics of a fractional-order very high frequency (VHF) resonant boost converter. The transient analytical solutions of state variables obtained by this method could be used as a guide for parameter design and circuit optimization.

The VHF converter is decoupled into a simplified equivalent circuit model and described by the differential equation. The solution of the simplified equivalent circuit model is taken as the main oscillation component of the transient state variable. And the equivalent small parameter method (ESPM) and Kalman filter technology are used to solve the differential equation of the converter to obtain the steady-state ripple component. Then, by superimposing the abovementioned two parts, the approximate transient analytical solution can be acquired. Finally, the influence of the fractional order of the energy storage elements on the transient process of the converter is discussed.

The results from the proposed method agree well with those from simulations, which indicates that the proposed method can effectively analyze the transient characteristic of the fractional-order VHF converter, and the analytical solution derived from the proposed mathematical model shows sufficient accuracy.

This paper proposes for the first time a method to analyze the transient characteristics of a fractional-order VHF resonant boost converter. By combining the main oscillated solution derived from the simplified equivalent circuit model with the steady-state solution based on ESPM, this method can greatly reduce the computation amount to estimate the transient solution. In addition, the discussion on the order of fractional calculus of energy storage components can provide an auxiliary guidance for the selection of circuit parameters and the study of stability.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influencing factors of patients’ financial burden through a case study of hospital on public‒private partnerships (PPP) model (Chaonan Minsheng Hospital of Guangdong Province) and provide some useful information to policymakers for better development of hospitals on PPP model.

There are total six indicators that are defined as patients’ financial burden, basing on the policy of “indicators of medical quality management and control on the third level large general hospital (2011 edition),” issued by Chinese Government. In total, 23 potentially influencing factors of patients’ financial burden for hospital on PPP model were chosen from the above policy. The five-year (2007‒2011) data for the above 29 indicators come from statistic department of hospital on PPP model. Grey relational analysis (GRA) was applied to analyze the influencing factors of patients’ financial burden for hospital on PPP model.

A clear rank of influencing factors of patients’ financial burden is obtained and suggestions are provided from results of GRA, which provide reference for policymakers of hospital on PPP model. The five main influencing factors of patients’ financial burden for hospital on PPP model, in sequence, are rescuing critical ill patients on emergency, rescuing critical ill inpatients, inpatient bed occupancy rate, working days per bed and medical building area.

The study on the influencing factors of patients’ financial burden for hospital on PPP model not only provides decision-making for policymaker of hospital and controlling of medical expenditure but also contributes to release patients’ financial burden for hospitals on PPP model.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss about evaluating the integrals involving B-spline wavelet on the interval (BSWI), in wavelet finite element formulations, using Gauss Quadrature.

In the proposed scheme, background cells are placed over each BSWI element and Gauss quadrature rule is defined for each of these cells. The nodal discretization used for BSWI WFEM element is independent to the selection of number of background cells used for the integration process. During the analysis, background cells of various lengths are used for evaluating the integrals for various combination of order and resolution of BSWI scaling functions. Numerical examples based on one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) plane elasto-statics are solved. Problems on beams based on Euler Bernoulli and Timoshenko beam theory under different boundary conditions are also examined. The condition number and sparseness of the formulated stiffness matrices are analyzed.

It is found that to form a well-conditioned stiffness matrix, the support domain of every wavelet scaling function should possess sufficient number of integration points. The results are analyzed and validated against the existing analytical solutions. Numerical examples demonstrate that the accuracy of displacements and stresses is dependent on the size of the background cell and number of Gauss points considered per background cell during the analysis.

The current paper gives the details on implementation of Gauss Quadrature scheme, using a background cell-based approach, for evaluating the integrals involved in BSWI-based wavelet finite element method, which is missing in the existing literature.

Given that the use of Google Trends data is helpful to improve forecasting performance, this study aims to investigate whether the precision of forecast combination can benefit from the use of Google Trends Web search index along with the encompassing set.

Grey prediction models generate single-model forecasts, while Google Trends index serves as an explanatory variable for multivariate models. Then, three combination sets, including sets of univariate models (CUGM), all constituents (CAGM) and constituents that survive the forecast encompassing tests (CSET), are generated. Finally, commonly used combination methods combine the individual forecasts for each combination set.

The tourism volumes of four frequently searched-for cities in Taiwan are used to evaluate the accuracy of three combination sets. The encompassing tests show that multivariate grey models play a role to be reckoned with in forecast combinations. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate the usefulness of Google Trends index and encompassing tests for linear combination methods because linear combination methods coupled with CSET outperformed that coupled with CAGM and CUGM.

With Google Trends Web search index, the tourism sector may benefit from the use of linear combinations of constituents that survive encompassing tests to formulate business strategies for tourist destinations. A good forecasting practice by estimating ex ante forecasts post-COVID-19 can be further provided by scenario forecasting.

To improve the accuracy of combination forecasting, this research verifies the correlation between Google Trends index and combined forecasts in tourism along with encompassing tests.

過去的研究顯示 Google 搜尋趨勢資料有助於改善旅遊需求預測的準確度，本研究就此進一步探討 Google 搜尋趨勢網頁搜尋指標與涵蓋性檢定的使用對於組合預測準確度所造成的影響。

本研究以 Google 搜尋趨勢指標做為多變量灰色預測模式的解釋變數，並以單變量與多變量灰色模式產生各別預測值。在分別產生由所有的單變量模式 (CUGM)所有的模式 (CAGM), 以及經過涵蓋性檢定所留存下來之模式 (CSET) 所組成之集合後，就各別的組合集以常用的組合方法產生預測值。

以台灣的四個熱搜旅遊城市的旅遊人數進行三個組合集的預測準確度分析。涵蓋性檢定顯示多變量灰色模式在組合預測中扮演重要的角色，而結果亦呈現線性組合方法在 CSET優於在 CUGM 與 CAGM 的準確度，突顯搜尋趨勢指標與涵蓋性檢定對於線性組合方法的有用性。

藉由 Google 搜尋趨勢網頁搜尋指標與涵蓋性檢定，旅遊部門應可透過線性組合方法的預測規劃旅遊目的地的經營策略。新冠疫情下於各季的事前預測亦可結合情境預測具體呈現。

為提升組合預測在旅遊需求的預測準確度，本研究結合涵蓋性檢定以分析 Google 搜尋趨勢指標與組合預測準確度之間的關聯性。

旅遊需求,涵蓋性檢定,Google 搜尋趨勢,灰色預測,組合預測

研究型论文

Dado que el uso de los datos de Google Trends es útil para mejorar la precisión de las predicciones, este estudio examina si el uso del índice de búsqueda web de Google Trends combinado con la agregación de relevancia puede mejorar la precisión del predictor.

El modelo predictivo gris genera predicciones bajo un único modelo, mientras que el modelomultivariado utiliza el indicador Google Trends como variable explicativa. Se generaron tresensamblajes generales, incluido el Modelo armónico único (CUGM), los ensamblajes de todos loscomponentes (CAGM) y la prueba de presencia de componentes con predicción (CSET). Laspredicciones individuales encada grupo luego se combinan utilizando métodos de correlación deuso común.

Utilizando el número de turistas en las cuatro ciudades más investigadas de Taiwán, los tresgrupos combinados se clasificaron según su precisión. Las pruebas incluidas muestran que losmodelos multivariados en escala de grises son importantes para la predicción. Además, losresultados de las pruebas muestran que el índice de Google Trends y las pruebas que incluyenmétodos de suma lineal son útiles porque los métodos combinados con CSET funcionan majorque los métodos combinados con CSET. CAGM y VCUG.

La industria de viajes puede usar el índice de búsqueda web de Google Trends para desarrollarestrategias comerciales para atracciones basadas en un conjunto lineal de componentes.

Con el objetivo de mejorar la precisión de los pronósticos agregados, este estudio investiga larelación entre el índice de tendencias de Google y las expectativas generales de viaje junto con laevidencia global.

Demanda de viajes, Experiencia global, Tendencias de Google, Predicción gris

Trabajo de investigación

Risk management is one of the most influential parts of project management that has a major impact on the success or failure of projects. Due to the increasing use of information technology in all fields and the high failure rate of software development projects, it is essential to predict the risk level of each project effectively before starting. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is proposing an expert system to infer about the risk of new banking software development project.

In this research, the risk of software developing projects is considered from four dimensions including risk of cost deviation, time deviation, quality deviation and scope deviation, which is examined by rough set theory (RST). The most important variables affecting the cost, time, quality and scope of projects are identified as condition attributes and four initial decision systems are constructed. Grey system theory is used to cluster the condition attributes and after data discretizing, eight rule models for each dimension of risk as a decision attribute are extracted using RST. The most validated model for each decision attribute is selected as an inference engine of the expert system, and finally a simple user interface is designed in order to predict the risk level of any new project by inserting the data of project attributes

In this paper, a high accuracy expert system is designed based on the combination of the grey clustering method and rough set modeling to predict the risks of each project before starting. Cross-validation of different rule models shows that the best model for determining cost deviation is Manual/Jonson/ORR model, and the most validated models for predicting the risk of time, quality and scope of projects are Entropy/Genetic/ORR, Manual/Genetic/FOR and Entropy/Genetic/ORR models; all of which are more than 90% accurate

It is essential to gather data of previous cases to design a validated expert system. Since data documentation in the field of software development projects is not complete enough, grey set theory (GST) and RST are combined to improve the validity of the rule model. The proposed expert system can be used for risk assessment of new banking software projects

The risk assessment of software developing projects based on RST is a new approach in the field of risk management. Furthermore, using the grey clustering for combining the condition attributes is a novel solution for improving the accuracy of the rule models.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the risk factors that affect aquatic product quality in the “farming-supermarket docking” condition. This paper investigates how the investment scale can affect earnings and aquatic product quality assurance level. Also, it aims to determine an effective method for increasing aquatic product assurance level, coordinate the supply chain and improve management of the entire supply chain.

The authors construct a coordination model for quality risk control of the aquatic supply chain by simulating the model in a tilapia supply chain using the case study method. They applied Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions to analyze upstream enterprises (breeding base) and downstream enterprises (corresponding supermarket) under the conditions of sufficient or insufficient funds, Further, they consider the relationships among revenue, optimum quality assurance and investment scale at different capital positions; discuss the best cooperation conditions in four cases; and draw conclusions on ways to control quality risk.

The proposed coordination model is found to be effective in controlling aquatic product quality risk. The simulation results show that when the enterprise funds are sufficient, the sales prices, product freshness, quality assurance ability, collaboration and quality test ability have a positive influence on quality assurance level, whereas coefficient and price sensitivity have a negative influence on it. Additionally, it can obtain high-quality assurance levels and earnings in both breeding bases and supermarkets under the condition of adequate investment.

The study built a coordination model combined with the characteristics of the aquatic supply chain by adding the quality penalty mechanism, product freshness parameters and cost function in the “farming-supermarket docking” mode into the traditional principal–agent model. Research results are beneficial to enhancing the quality assurance level of the aquatic supply chain and improving the coordination level of the supply chain.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pose control of rigid spacecraft subject to dead-zone input, unknown external disturbance and parametric uncertainty in space maneuvering mission.

First, a 6-Degree of Freedom (DOF) dynamic model of rigid spacecraft with dead-zone input, unknown external disturbances and parametric uncertainty is derived. Second, a super-twisting-like fixed-time disturbance observer (FTDO) with strong robustness is developed to estimate the lumped disturbances in fixed time. Based on the proposed observer, a non-singular fixed-time terminal sliding-mode (NFTSM) controller with superior performance is proposed.

Different from the existing sliding-mode controllers, the proposed control scheme can directly avoid the singularity in the controller design and speed up the convergence rate with improved control accuracy. Moreover, no prior knowledge of lumped disturbances’ upper bound and its first derivatives is required. The fixed-time stability of the entire closed-loop system is rigorously proved in the Lyapunov framework. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed control scheme are proved by comparison with existing approaches.

The proposed NFTSM controller can merely be applied to a specific type of spacecrafts, as the relevant system states should be measurable.

A NFTSM controller based on a super-twisting-like FTDO can efficiently deal with dead-zone input, unknown external disturbance and parametric uncertainty for spacecraft pose control.

This investigation uses NFTSM control and super-twisting-like FTDO to achieve spacecraft pose control subject to dead-zone input, unknown external disturbance and parametric uncertainty.

Considering the impact of the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) policy on forecasting the port cargo throughput, this paper constructs a fractional grey multivariate forecasting model to improve the prediction accuracy of port cargo throughput and realize the coordinated development of FTZ policymaking and port construction.

Considering the effects of data randomization, this paper proposes a novel self-adaptive grey multivariate prediction model, namely FDCGM(1,N). First, fractional-order accumulative generation operation (AGO) is introduced, which integrates the policy impact effect. Second, the heuristic grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to determine the optimal nonlinear parameters. Finally, the novel model is then applied to port scale simulation and forecasting in Tianjin and Fujian where FTZs are situated and compared with three other grey models and two machine learning models.

In the Tianjin and Fujian cases, the new model outperforms the other comparison models, with the least mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 6.07% and 4.16% in the simulation phase, and 6.70% and 1.63% in the forecasting phase, respectively. The results of the comparative analysis find that after the constitution of the FTZs, Tianjin’s port cargo throughput has shown a slow growth trend, and Fujian’s port cargo throughput has exhibited rapid growth. Further, the port cargo throughput of Tianjin and Fujian will maintain a growing trend in the next four years.

The new multivariable grey model can effectively reduce the impact of data randomness on forecasting. Meanwhile, FTZ policy has regional heterogeneity in port development, and the government can take different measures to improve the development of ports.

Under the background of FTZ policy, the new multivariable model can be used to achieve accurate prediction, which is conducive to determining the direction of port development and planning the port layout.