Search results

One of the main factors that can impact the cost of holidays to a particular destination is the exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations impact the overall price of the holiday and should be expected to effect tourism demand. This paper aims to scrutinize the volatility of the real effective exchange rate between the source market relative to the holiday destination and tourism demand volatility, where the influence of disaggregated data is noted.

The study uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to simulate the time-varying conditional variances of international visitor demand and exchange rates for the relatively mature Caribbean tourist destination of Barbados. Data on the country’s main source markets, the UK, the USA and Canada is used, where the decision to disaggregate the analysis by market allows the authors to contribute to policymaking, particularly the future of tourism marketing.

The volatility models used in the paper suggests that shocks to total arrivals, as well as the USA and UK markets tend to die out relatively quickly. Asymmetric effects were observed for total arrivals, mainly due to the combination of the different source markets and potential evidence of Butler’s (1980) concept of a tourist area’s cycle of growth. The results also highlight the significance of using disaggregated tourism demand models to simulate volatility, as aggregated models do not adequately capture source market specific shocks, due to the potential model misspecification. Exchange rate volatility is postulated to have resulted in the greater utilization of packaged tours in some markets, while the effects of the market’s online presence moderates the impact of exchange rate volatility on tourist arrivals. Markets should also explore the potential of attracting higher numbers of older tourist, as this group may have higher disposable incomes, thereby mitigating the influence of exchange rate volatility.

Some of the explanatory variables were not available on a high enough frequency and proxies had to be used. However, the approach used was consistent with other papers in the literature.

The results from the paper suggest that the effects of exchange rate volatility in key source markets were offset by non-price factors in some markets and the existence of the exchange rate peg in others. In particular, the online presence of the destination was one of those non-price factors highlighted as being important.

In most theoretical models of tourism demand, disaggregation is not normally considered a significant aspect of the model. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the impact real effective exchange rate volatility has on tourism demand at a disaggregated source country level. The approach highlights the importance of modeling tourism demand at a disaggregated level and provides important perspective from a mature small island destination.

该研究采用多元条件波动回归来拟合相对成熟的加勒比海旅游目的地巴巴多斯的国际游客需求和汇率的时变条件方差。本研究逐一分析了该国主要客源市场（英国, 美国和加拿大）的数据, 从而为政策制定, 尤其是对今后的旅游营销做出贡献。

汇率是影响到特定目的地度假成本的主要因素之一。汇率波动会影响整体的度假成本, 并会影响旅游需求。基于按客源地分类的数据, 本文详细研究了客源市场相对于度假目的地的实际有效汇率的波动性以及旅游需求的波动性。

本文使用的波动模型表明, 汇率冲击对入境总人数以及美国和英国市场影响短暂。冲击对总入境人数产生的不对称效应, 主要是由于不同的客源市场加总和巴特勒（1980）关于旅游区增长周期概念所致。本文结论还凸显了使用基于客源地数据的旅游需求模型来模拟波动性的重要性, 因为加总数据不能充分捕获具体客源地市场的冲击从而产生模型设定作物。汇率波动会引起某些市场中团体游客的增加, 而目的地的线上热度影响会调节汇率波动对游客人数的影响。市场还应探索吸引更多老年游客的潜力, 因为该群体的可支配收入可能更高, 从而减轻了汇率波动的影响。

由于一些解释变量的数据频率不够高, 本文不得不使用一些替代指标。所使用的方法与文献中的其他论文一致。

该论文的结果表明, 在某些客源地市场, 汇率波动的影响会被某非价格因素所抵消, 而在另一些主要客源地市场, 固定汇率的存在刚好规避了汇率波动产生的影响。目的地的线上热度是重要的非价格因素之一。

在大多数旅游需求理论模型中, 按客源地拆分的数据通常不被视为模型的重要方面。本文的理论贡献则是通过研究实际有效汇率波动对不同客源国的旅游需求的影响强调了旅游需求建模中使用基于客源地数据的重要性, 并以一个成熟的小岛目的地为角度进行了阐述。

Uno de los principales factores que pueden afectar al costo de las vacaciones a un destino en particular es el tipo de cambio; Las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio afectan a el precio general de las vacaciones y es normal que afecten a la demanda turística. Este documento analiza la volatilidad del tipo de cambio efectivo real entre el mercado de origen en relación con el destino de vacaciones y la volatilidad de la demanda turística, donde se observa la influencia de los datos desagregados.

El estudio emplea regresiones de volatilidad condicional multivariadas para simular las variaciones condicionales variables en el tiempo de la demanda de visitantes internacionales y los tipos de cambio para el destino turístico caribeño relativamente maduro de Barbados. Se emplean datos sobre los principales mercados de origen del país, el Reino Unido, los Estados Unidos de América y Canadá, donde la decisión de desagrerar el análisis por mercado permite a los autores contribuir a la formulación de políticas, en particular al futuro del marketing turístico.

Los modelos de volatilidad utilizados en el documento sugieren que los shocks en las llegadas totales, así como en los mercados de los Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido, tienden a desaparecer con relativa rapidez. Se observaron efectos asimétricos para las llegadas totales, principalmente debido a la combinación de los diferentes mercados de origen y la evidencia potencial del concepto de Butler (1980) del ciclo de crecimiento de un área turística. Los resultados también resaltan la importancia de utilizar modelos desagregados de demanda turística para simular la volatilidad, ya que los modelos agregados no capturan adecuadamente los shocks específicos del mercado de origen, debido a la posible especificación errónea del modelo. Se postula que la volatilidad del tipo de cambio influye en una mayor utilización de los paquetes turísticos en algunos mercados, mientras que los efectos de la presencia del mercado en linea (online) moderan el impacto de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en las llegadas de turistas. Los mercados también deberían explorar el potencial de atraer un mayor número de turistas mayores, ya que este grupo puede tener mayores ingresos disponibles, mitigando así la influencia de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio.

Algunas de las variables explicativas no estaban disponibles en una frecuencia alta y se tuvieron que utilizar proxies. Sin embargo, el enfoque utilizado fue consistente con otros artículos en la literatura.

Los resultados del documento sugieren que los efectos de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio en los mercados de origen clave fueron compensados por factores no relacionados con los precios en algunos mercados y la existencia de la vinculación del tipo de cambio en otros. En particular, la presencia en línea (online) del destino fue uno de esos factores no relacionados con el precio destacados como importantes.

En la mayoría de los modelos teóricos de la demanda turística, la desagregación normalmente no se considera un aspecto significativo del modelo. Este documento contribuye a la literatura al investigar el impacto que la volatilidad efectiva del tipo de cambio real tiene sobre la demanda turística a nivel de país de origen desagregado. El enfoque resalta la importancia de modelar la demanda turística a un nivel desagregado y proporciona una perspectiva importante desde un destino insular pequeño y maduro.

This paper investigates the potential wage impacts of a shift to more environmentally sustainable production patterns.

The empirical analysis is carried out using labour force survey data and interval regressions.

Estimates at the individual level suggest that small wage differentials exist: individuals employed in green industries earn about seven per cent more than those working in non-green industries.

To date, very little is known about the characteristics of jobs in the green industry and by extension, the labour force effects that can emerge or change as a result of transitioning towards a greener economy. While exploratory in nature, this analysis seeks to shed light on an underdeveloped area of research, namely, wage inequalities associated with transitioning towards green growth.

This study attempts to identify the key structural and institutional factors that influence the decision to export using a database of 8,047 firms in manufacturing, services and agricultural activity and in 81 countries. A Probit model of the export decision is estimated for the full sample of firms and for sub‐samples of firms in various country groupings. The study's results indicate that size, age, previous export experience, ownership status, the provision of subsidies and market competition are the most important determinants of the export decision.

Credit booms have frequently been identified as causes of financial crises. However, credit growth, and the supply of finance, in general, is intimately associated with economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to consider why Caribbean countries go through episodes of credit booms.

Two approaches are employed to identify credit booms. The first approach uses an ad hoc classification rule, while the second technique is based on a Markov‐switching vector autoregressive approach. To explain the number of credit boom episodes occurring over a particular period, a count data model is employed.

The results suggest that credit booms were more likely to occur during periods of low inflation, above trend economic growth, investment, money supply changes, and world growth. Relatively under‐developed financial systems as well as capital account liberalisation was also associated with the emergence of credit booms.

It is also possible that bank‐specific factors (e.g. capital adequacy, share of non‐performing loans and bank competition) may also be important determinants of the emergence of credit booms. However, data on these variables were not available over the sample period.

The study provides an alternative approach to identifying credit booms. In addition, the potential role played by external factors and economic policy are also considered.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential link between remittances and economic volatility in small island developing states.

The paper estimates a panel data model using a database containing 20 small island developing states (SIDS) observed over annual intervals between 1986 and 2005.

The results suggest that, in general, remittance flows have a stabilising influence on output and investment volatility. However, given the importance of these flows to SIDS, the volatility of remittances also has a significant and positive impact on both investment and consumption volatility.

The policy implications of the study's findings is that SIDS (similar to how oil‐producing nations take oil price fluctuations into account when considering policy changes) may have to monitor and forecast future remittance flows and take these projections into account when making changes to either their monetary or fiscal policy stance.

Workers' remittances have grown dramatically worldwide, particularly in SIDS, where they constitute one of the main sources of foreign exchange. Given the importance of these flows to economic growth and development in these countries, this study examines the potential link between remittances and economic volatility.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the main determinants of dependency on food aid programmes. Food aid may take the form of a loan, a sale below market price or a current transfer. Food aid programmes across the globe are generally designed to provide short‐term assistance to countries. However, many countries have developed a dependence on food aid assistance.

The paper estimates cross‐sectional regressions using a database containing 116 developing countries over the period 1970‐2003. Bayesian averaging of classical estimates is employed to identify the robust determinants of dependency.

The study finds that the top two determinants of food aid dependence (both cereals and non‐cereals) were food production and the frequency of droughts affecting the country. Food inflation, population density, crop yields, the amount of arable land per capita, the rule of law and the number of armed conflicts were also robustly related to aid dependence.

These findings suggest that international donors should focus primarily on offsetting the substitution effect of aid on local production as well as implement systems to partially offset the negative effects of droughts, if they are to break the cycle of dependence on food aid.

Previous studies have investigated the effects of a large number of other variables. The findings from these papers were somewhat conflicting due to differences in model specification. To identify the variables that have a robust relationship with food aid dependence, whatever the model specification, the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates approach proposed by Sala‐i‐Martin et al. is employed.

Remittances are the fastest growing source of foreign exchange earnings for developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of remittances on economic volatility of the receiving country.

A panel of 95 countries over the period 1970‐2005 is employed in the analysis. To assess the impact of remittances on volatility a multivariate model is estimated using a panel fixed effects approach with cross‐section weights.

The study reports that remittances can play a key role in mitigating the effect of adverse output shocks but exert no significant influence on consumption and investment volatility. Moreover, important differential impacts exist across the various country groupings.

Countries that are dependent on remittances may have to monitor and forecast future remittance flows and take these projections into account when making changes to either their monetary or fiscal policy stance.

The findings provided in this paper should be of use to policymakers in developing countries.

Developing countries tend to be characterised by relatively high levels of indebtedness. The proceeds from debt can potentially have positive effects on growth, if the funds are employed to expand the productive capacity of the nation. The paper aims to investigate whether debt can be used to finance growth.

The paper utilizes meta‐analysis approach to address the issue. This approach allows researchers to combine the results from both published and unpublished research to gain insights regarding the directional and statistical significance of the relationship between the two variables.

The results suggest that there exist a positive relationship between debt and economic growth.

The findings from the paper suggest that future research should be conscious of the effect model specification can have on the results on their studies. Indeed, when external debt, the fiscal balance, debt relief where included in the econometric specification the relationship between debt and growth was weakened.

Economic growth should be stimulated, if the proceeds from debt issues are utilized to finance investment in productive areas of economic activity.

While the relationship between debt and growth has stimulated a number of research papers, seminars and conferences, to date, however, no clear answer to the question is available. Through the use of meta‐analysis, this paper allows the reader to glean the main findings from this body of research.

Since the decline of export agriculture and the loss of trade preferences, most Caribbean countries have shifted their economies towards the provision of tourism services. Barbados, for example, receives more than two‐thirds of its foreign exchange earnings from tourism. The sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean can potentially be affected by climate change. This paper aims to address this issue.

This paper provides an assessment of the likely effects of climate change in the small state of Barbados and suggests some recommended adaptations. Climate change is expected to impact on temperature, rainfall and severe weather, sea levels and sea surface temperatures, biodiversity loss, and lead to erosion and seasonal shifts on the island.

The paper finds that, in relation to tourism demand, as travellers from source markets become more conscious of their carbon footprint and the implementation of green taxes, there might be some alteration in demand for long‐haul destinations such as Barbados. On the supply‐side, increased operating costs, due to higher insurance premiums (particularly for beachfront properties) and greater cooling costs, to name a few could all impact on the profitability of hotels in the island. As climate change impacts on the water table, there is also likely to be some competition for water resources for residential and tourism purposes.

The paper supplies useful information on sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean and the effects of climate change.

This issue is a selected bibliography covering the subject of leadership.