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1 – 10 of 211The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Islamic banks (IBs) and macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Islamic banks (IBs) and macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on these criteria, 672 observations from 24 IBs in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh were chosen for further investigation. Time series analysis is a well-known method for determining if model variables are stationary and how long-term relationships function through cointegration analysis. This study uses impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD) methodologies to demonstrate how each macroeconomic variable shock influences the short-term dynamic path of all system variables.
Findings
Islamic banking promotes economic growth, especially in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh. The findings of the Islamic banking VDC test have a direct and long-term effect on economic growth.
Research limitations/implications
The literature on this topic can be improved in a number of ways, including by adopting a more robust method to analyze over a longer time frame. By researching specific financing in various areas of the economy, one can gain a deeper understanding of Islamic financing. This will enable the identification of sectors that contribute to economic expansion. Future research should examine combining nations with pure Islam and dual-banking systems to acquire sufficient data.
Practical implications
This paper has practice and research implications. It recommends adopting the nation’s successful experiment with the Islamic banking system as a model for attaining economic growth through Islamic financing. To replicate this successful experiment, government-based decision-makers and monetary policy experts must collaborate to make Islamic money flows simple and rapid through financial channels that enhance economic growth.
Originality/value
The study of the contribution of Islamic banking to economic growth in developing nations, particularly those with the highest total assets (TAs) and total deposits (TDs) in the world, remains of modest value. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically assess the impact of IBs in developing nations, particularly those with the highest TAs and TDs in the world, on economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
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Gaytri Malhotra, Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Priyanka Tandon and Neena Sinha
This study unravels an attempt to investigate the dynamic connectedness of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with 10 financial markets of wheat importing counties during the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study unravels an attempt to investigate the dynamic connectedness of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with 10 financial markets of wheat importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.
Design/methodology/approach
This study took the daily prices of Wheat FOB Black Sea Index (Russia) along with stock indices of 10 major wheat-importing nations of Russia and Ukraine. The time frame for this study ranges from February 24, 2022 to July 31, 2022. This time frame was selected since it fully examines all of the effects of the crisis. The conditional correlations and volatility spillovers of these indices are predicted using the DCC-GARCH model, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) models.
Findings
It is found that there is dynamic linkage of agri-commodity of with stock markets of Iraq, Pakistan and Tanzania in short run while stock markets of Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil and Iraq are spilled by agri-commodity in long run. In addition, it documents that there is large spillover in short run than medium and long run comparatively. This signifies that investors have more diversification opportunity in short run then long run contemplating to invest in these markets.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ understanding this is the first study to undertake the dynamic linkage of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with financial market of select importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.
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Niharika Mehta, Seema Gupta and Shipra Maitra
Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is…
Abstract
Purpose
Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is gaining importance because other sources of raising finance such as External Commercial Borrowing and foreign currency convertible bonds have been banned in the Indian real estate sector. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the determinants attracting foreign direct investment in real estate and to assess the impact of those variables on foreign direct investments in real estate.
Design/methodology/approach
Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model along with variance decomposition and impulse response function are employed to understand the nexus of the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and foreign direct investment in real estate.
Findings
The results indicate that infrastructure, GDP and tourism act as drivers of foreign direct investment in real estate. However, interest rates act as a barrier.
Originality/value
This article aimed at exploring factors attracting FDIRE along with estimating the impact of identified variables on FDI in real estate. Unlike other studies, this study considers FDI in real estate instead of foreign real estate investments.
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Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.
Findings
Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.
Originality/value
There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.
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Sarra Gouta and Houda BenMabrouk
This study aims at exploring the nexus between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS stock markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims at exploring the nexus between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the dynamic connectedness approach TVP-VAR model of Antonakakis et al. (2019) to capture the spillovers across different markets. Moreover, to explore herding behavior, the authors used a modified version of the CSAD measure of Chang et al. (2000) including extreme market movements. Finally, to study the link between these two phenomena, the authors estimated a DCC-GARCH model.
Findings
The results show that herding behavior exists in the American market and some BRICS markets. Furthermore, spillover between G7 and BRICS increases in times of crisis. Moreover, the authors find a dynamic conditional correlation between herding behavior and spillovers both in the short and long run. The authors conclude that in times of crisis, the transmission of shocks between markets is more frequent, fuelling uncertainty and pushing investors to suppress their own beliefs and follow the general market trends.
Originality/value
This paper uses the TVP-VAR model to explore the spillover effect and the DCC-GARCH model to explore the connectedness between herding behavior and the spillover effect in G7 and BRICS countries in both the short and long run.
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Armando Urdaneta Montiel, Emmanuel Vitorio Borgucci Garcia and Segundo Camino-Mogro
This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand – all of them in real terms – and Gross National Product…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand – all of them in real terms – and Gross National Product between 2006 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The vector autoregressive technique (VAR) was used, where data from real macroeconomic aggregates published by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) are correlated, such as productive credit, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, deposits and money demand.
Findings
The results indicate that there is no causal relationship, in the Granger sense, between GDP and financial activity, but there is between the growth rate of real money demand per capita and the growth rate of total real deposits per capita.
Originality/value
The study shows that bank credit mainly finances the operations of current assets and/or liabilities. In addition, economic agents use the banking system mainly to carry out transactional and precautionary activities.
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Sean Gossel and Misheck Mutize
This study investigates (1) whether democratization drives sovereign credit ratings (SCR) changes (the “democratic advantage”) or whether SCR changes affect democratization, (2…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates (1) whether democratization drives sovereign credit ratings (SCR) changes (the “democratic advantage”) or whether SCR changes affect democratization, (2) whether the degree of democratization in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries affects the associations and (3) whether the associations are significantly affected by resource dependence.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the effects of SCR changes on democracy in 22 SSA countries over the period of 2000–2020 VEC Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests, and impulse responses and variance decomposition analyses with Cholesky ordering and Monte Carlo standard errors in a panel VECM framework.
Findings
The full sample impulse responses find that a SCR shock has a long-run detrimental effect on the democracy and political rights but only a short-run positive impact on civil liberties. Among the sub-samples, it is found that the extent of natural resource dependence does not affect the magnitude of SCR shocks on democratization mentioned above but it is found that a SCR shock affects long-run democracy in SSA countries that are relatively more democratic but is more likely to drive democratic deepening in less democratic SSA countries. The full sample variance decompositions further finds that the variance of SCR to a political rights shock outweighs the effects of all the macroeconomic factors, whereas in more diversified SSA countries, the variances of SCR are much greater for democracy and political rights shocks, which suggests that democratization and political rights in diversified SSA economies are severely affected by SCR changes. In the case of the high and low democracy sub-samples, it is found that the variance of SCR in the relatively higher democracy sub-sample is greater than in the low democracy sub-sample.
Social implications
These results have three implications for democratization in SSA. First, the effect of a SCR change is not a democratically agnostic and impacts political rights to a greater extent than civil liberties. Second, SCR changes have the potential to spark a negative cycle in SSA countries whereby a downgrade leads to a deterioration in socio-political stability coupled with increased financial economic constraints that in turn drive further downgrades and macroeconomic hardship. Finally, SCR changes are potentially detrimental for democracy in more democratic SSA countries but democratically supportive in less democratic SSA countries. Thus, SSA countries that are relatively politically sophisticated are more exposed to the effects of SCR changes, whereas less politically sophisticated SSA countries can proactively shape their SCRs by undertaking political reforms.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the associations between SCR and democracy in SSA. This is critical literature for the Africa’s scholarly work given that the debate on unfair rating actions and claims of subjective rating methods is ongoing.
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Ahlem Lamine, Ahmed Jeribi and Tarek Fakhfakh
This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021…
Abstract
Purpose
This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.
Findings
Generally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.
Originality/value
The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos, Dimitrios Koumanakos and Michalis Pavlakis
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest project in European Union (EU) and previous studies fail to reach an accurate conclusion regarding the direction of this transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
The study covers the period from January 2013 to August 2022 in monthly basis where important economic events occur. Considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, the authors adopt a new methodology that measures the transmission of volatility with higher precision. This is the generalized spillover analysis by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012).
Findings
The results indicate that Business Confidence Index (BCI) is the main receiver of volatility spillovers in Greece under all aspects of the used methodology. The specificity of the results shows that business activity through a green growth model is what drives investor confidence and then their activities.
Originality/value
Although a handful of studies have considered the transmission of volatility between BCI and stock market indices, this study contributes in several ways. This study focuses on one country (Greece), avoiding the dispersion of the results from the examination of the relationship in several countries. The used country remains the riskiest project in EU even nowadays, while other studies fail to confirm the main direction of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns. This study covers a period that is ignored by previous studies and includes important economic events. In addition, considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, a new methodology is adopted in this field of research that measures the transmission of volatility with higher accuracy.
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Hang Thi Thuy Le, Huy Viet Hoang and Nga Thi Hang Phan
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial stability in Vietnam, a developing country characterized by a bank-based financial system.
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial stability in Vietnam, a developing country characterized by a bank-based financial system.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a sample of daily data from January 23, 2020 to June 30, 2022, the VECM and NARDL models are employed to study Vietnam’s financial stability in face of the COVID-19 disaster. Following the literature on COVID-19, the authors measure the impact of the pandemic by the number of daily infected cases and the national lockdown. Given the reliance of the Vietnamese government on the banking system to regulate the economy, the authors evaluate financial stability from the interbank market and stock market perspectives.
Findings
The authors find that the pandemic imposes a destructive effect on financial stability during the early time of the pandemic; however, the analysis with an extended period indicates that this effect gradually fades in the long term. In addition, from the NARDL results, the authors reveal an asymmetric relationship between the financial market and the COVID-19 pandemic in both short term and long term.
Research limitations/implications
An implication drawn from this study is that unprecedented health disasters should be resolved by unprecedented stringent countermeasures when conventional methods are ineffective. Although rigorous remedies may increase short-term liabilities, their implementation quickly ceases disease diffusion and helps an economy enter the recovery stage in a timelier manner.
Originality/value
The study is the first to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial stability, via the interbank market lens, in a developing country that relies on the bank-based financial system.
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