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1 – 10 of 445Robin K. Chou, Kuan-Cheng Ko and S. Ghon Rhee
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic…
Abstract
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic and low uncertainty-avoiding cultures have a higher tendency to overinvest, this study aims to show that the negative relation between asset growth and stock returns is stronger in countries with such cultural features. Once the researchers control for cultural dimensions, proxies associated with the q-theory, limits-to-arbitrage, corporate governance, investor protection and accounting quality provide no incremental power for the relation between asset growth and stock returns across countries. Evidence of this study highlights the importance of the overinvestment hypothesis in explaining the asset growth anomaly around the world.
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Jessica Paule-Vianez, Carmen Orden-Cruz, Camilo Prado-Román and Raúl Gómez-Martínez
This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods across a conditional distribution.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors selected a sample covering the period between 01/1995–05/2021. Quantile regressions were applied to the EPU and Russell indices. Business cycles were established following the NBER.
Findings
The results show that EPU has a negative effect on stocks with the intensity of the effect depending on the stock's profile. Small-cap and growth stocks were found to be most sensitive to EPU, especially during recessions. The negative effect is moderated by the economic cycle but is progressively diluted at the lower tail of the stock return distribution.
Practical implications
The findings shed more light on investment strategies for growth/value investors that pursue opportunities arising from a changing economic cycle.
Originality/value
This study makes the following contributions: (1) explores the impact of EPU on the return of different stocks across a conditional distribution, and (2) provides evidence on how the economic cycle influences EPU impact on growth/value stocks and small/large stocks.
研究目的
:本研究擬分析跨條件分佈、以及於擴張期和衰退期,經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的收益的影響。
研究設計/方法/理念
我們選擇了涵蓋1995年1月與2021年5月期間的樣本進行研究。我們於經濟政策不確定性指數和羅素指數上採用分位數迴歸法進行研究; 並跟隨著美國國家經濟研究局,建立了多個經濟週期。
研究結果
研究結果顯示,經濟政策不確定性對股票是有負面影響的,而影響的強度則視乎股票的投資組合而定。我們發現,小盤股和成長型股票對經濟政策不確定性是非常敏感的,尤其是在經濟衰退期間。這負面影響會被經濟週期緩和,唯這緩和作用卻會在股票收益的低尾處逐漸減輕。
實務方面的啟示
研究結果使我們更容易理解為尋找因經濟週期改變而衍生的機會的增長/價值投資者所提供的投資策略。
研究的原創性/價值
本研究有以下的貢獻:(一) 、 探究了經濟政策不確定性對跨條件分佈、不同的股票收益的影響; (二) 、為經濟週期會如何左右經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的影響,提供了證據。
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Faik Bilgili, Fatma Ünlü, Pelin Gençoğlu and Sevda Kuşkaya
This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.
Findings
This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.
Originality/value
One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.
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Entrepreneurs prioritise and act on purposeful endeavours instigated to actions by the visions of profits and benefits in the perceived opportunities. In the state of maximum…
Abstract
Purpose
Entrepreneurs prioritise and act on purposeful endeavours instigated to actions by the visions of profits and benefits in the perceived opportunities. In the state of maximum entropy, with disorderliness and disequilibrium, entrepreneurs select the preferred pathway, through the profit-sensing mechanism, with the best probability of success to bet on. Therefore, this paper unpacks the forces at work in the mechanism to explain how entrepreneurs respond to opportunity and interpret the signals to coalesce into organised actions.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is primarily a conceptual paper on entrepreneurial action and the mechanism leading to that action. It refers to thermodynamic principles and biological cases to explain the forces at work using mostly analogical comparisons and similarities.
Findings
This paper aims to present an alternative theoretical scaffolding for entrepreneurship researchers to explore non-rational entrepreneurial behaviours and actions in uncertain, unstable and non-equilibrium environments, thereby creating new and competing hypotheses under the backdrop of adaptive evolution and thermodynamics phenomena.
Research limitations/implications
The discussion featuring instinctively and naturally forming responses cannot fully explain the real entrepreneurial action as there is an element of free will and choices that are not discussed. While strategic choice and free-will shape decisions, they are preceded first by the attraction of the gradients and the biased motion in the direction of profit-attractant.
Practical implications
There remain essential links and issues not addressed in this “natural science”, constituting life science and physical science, oriented entrepreneurship research and exploration. Conceptualising opportunity-as-artefact and entrepreneurship as design, significant incidences of entrepreneurial actions can be explained by the presence of gradients stimulating entrepreneurial actions.
Social implications
This viewpoint of information causality in opportunity-as-artefact casts a new look at the venerable question of what causes entrepreneurial actions. Shane and Venkataraman brought into focus this conversation, initiating the conceptual definition of opportunity. To have entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial opportunities must come first. Figuring the signals arising from these opportunities and cueing entrepreneurs to action is the main focus of this study.
Originality/value
Considering the “mechanism” at work and the thermodynamical forces at play, the entrepreneurial design process appears to hold considerable promise for future research development.
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Phuc Canh Nguyen, Christophe Schinckus, Binh Quang Nguyen and Duyen Le Thuy Tran
This study investigates the effect of global and domestic uncertainty on the dynamics of portfolio investment in 21 economies (mostly advanced and larger emerging economies) from…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the effect of global and domestic uncertainty on the dynamics of portfolio investment in 21 economies (mostly advanced and larger emerging economies) from 2001–2016.
Design/methodology/approach
Specifically, the evolution of the net portfolio equity investment inflows (FPI net inflows) and the evolution of net portfolio investment (FPI net) are investigated in a context in which the degree and the volatility of domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and world uncertainty index (WUI) varied. The authors provide an empirical analysis through the sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models for unbalanced panel data.
Findings
An increase in the degree and volatility of domestic EPU has a significant negative influence on FPI net inflows, while an increase in WUI has a significant positive one. Notably, a simultaneous increase in the domestic EPU and WUI enhances the net inflows of FPI, whereas a simultaneous increase in the volatility of these indicators reduces the net inflows of FPI. An increase in the degree and volatility of both domestic EPU and WUI have a significant positive effect on the net portfolio investment, implying that a significant net portfolio investment is going out of the country.
Research limitations/implications
The results of this study encourage international investors to consider uncertainty indicators (and, more specifically, their variations) in their portfolio strategy to optimize their position on the international markets. The findings of this study invite policy-makers from large countries to reduce the perceived domestic uncertainty since this parameter can influence international investors' sensitivity and willingness to diversify their position out of the country.
Originality/value
The authors' approach focuses on the variations of uncertainty (existing literature mainly works with the indicators). While the results confirm the role played by large markets in international portfolio investment management, it nuances the changes in the portfolio management behaviors toward other markets when facing a changing uncertainty.
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Sophia Brink and Gretha Steenkamp
After the effective date of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 15, the accounting treatment of credit card rewards programmes (CCRPs) is no longer explicitly…
Abstract
Purpose
After the effective date of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 15, the accounting treatment of credit card rewards programmes (CCRPs) is no longer explicitly prescribed. Uncertainty regarding what constitutes faithful representation, and the inconsistent accounting practices observed, has created a need for guidance on the appropriate accounting treatment of CCRP transactions. Accounting theory has the potential to provide the foundation for this guidance. As a result, the objective of this study was to develop a theoretical model for the accounting treatment of CCRP transactions using accounting theory.
Design/methodology/approach
This non-empirical qualitative conceptual study utilised document analysis, focussing specifically on accounting theory, to construct an accounting treatment model.
Findings
Applying the relevant accounting theory (International Accounting Standards Board's (IASB's) Conceptual Framework), a theoretical model for the accounting treatment of CCRP transactions was developed, which emphasises the importance of understanding the economic phenomenon (the CCRP transaction) and determining how management views the transaction (in isolation as marketing or as an integral part of the credit card transaction).
Originality/value
Addressing the problem of accounting for CCRP transactions with reference to accounting theory (which is the main element of scholarly activity in accounting) distinguishes this study from previous research on the topic. The CCRP accounting treatment theoretical model could assist CCRP management in faithfully accounting for a CCRP transaction and reduce uncertainty and inconsistency in practice. Moreover, this study identified the procedures to be employed when using accounting theory to determine the appropriate accounting treatment of business transactions. These procedures could be employed by accountants when faced with other transactions not covered by specific accounting standards.
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Ruzita Abdul-Rahim, Adilah Abd Wahab and Mohammad Hudaib
Drawing upon underinvestment theory and clientele effect hypothesis, this paper aims to examine the effects of foreign currency (forex) exposure and Shari’ah-compliant status on…
Abstract
Purpose
Drawing upon underinvestment theory and clientele effect hypothesis, this paper aims to examine the effects of foreign currency (forex) exposure and Shari’ah-compliant status on firms’ financial hedging strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on data of 250 nonfinancial firms listed on Bursa Malaysia from 2010 to 2018 (2,250 firm-year observations), the authors test the impact of forex exposure based on a vector of foreign-denominated cash flows (FCF) indicators and firms’ Sharīʿah-compliant status on two proxies of financial hedging decisions, namely, the ratio of the notional value of currency derivatives to total assets and a binomial measure of hedging status. The hedging decision models are estimated using panel logistic regression and system generalized method of moments.
Findings
The results indicate significant positive effects of the forex exposure indicators on firms’ propensity to hedge. However, the impact of forex exposure is most prevalent via total FCF. The results also reveal significant positive effects of Sharīʿah-compliant status on firms’ propensity to hedge but its negative impacts on the value of currency derivatives they use. The results suggest that Sharīʿah-compliant firms refrain from engaging in currency derivatives to avoid riba’ and subsequently subdue the clientele effect. However, when the forex exposure reaches higher levels, engagement in currency derivatives becomes a matter of tentative necessity (dharurat).
Research limitations/implications
This study relies exclusively on the disclosure of foreign currency risk and management data in the annual reports of listed companies. Consequently, this limits the sample size to only those nonfinancial listed companies with complete data for the study period. Also, since none of the companies reports using Sharīʿah-compliant derivatives, the authors thus assume that they use derivative instruments that tolerate “riba.”
Practical implications
Given the significance of forex exposure on hedging decisions, the accounting profession must strictly adopt FRS 7 and FRS 139 for all listed firms to avoid market scrutiny and sustain their clientele. The results also call for the Islamic market regulators to include mandatory disclosure of conventional currency derivatives in screening firms for clearly prohibited activities to help enhance the credibility of its Islamic financial market.
Originality/value
Due to difficulty accessing relevant cash flow data, the study is among the few studies that measure forex exposure using FCF and test more proxy indicators. This study is perhaps the first to examine the Shari’ah perspective on currency derivatives in corporate forex risk management.
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This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are positively related to the risk-neutral expectation, one of the term spread’s components, particularly during high uncertainty periods. These findings are consistent with the importance of the monetary policy by the central bank in a high uncertainty environment created by unexpected shocks. The results are robust to alternate definitions of high uncertainty periods.
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Johannes Strobel, Kevin D. Salyer and Gabriel S. Lee
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the credit channel effects on investment behavior for the US and the Euro area.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the credit channel effects on investment behavior for the US and the Euro area.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and calibrates a version of the Carlstrom and Fuerst’s (1997) agency cost model of business cycles with time-varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. To highlight the differences between the US and European financial sectors, the paper focuses on two key components of the lending channel: the risk premium associated with bank loans and the bankruptcy rates.
Findings
This paper shows that the effects of minor differences in the credit market translate into large, persistent and asymmetric fluctuations in real and financial variables and depend on the type of shocks. The results imply that the Euro areas supply elasticities for capital are less elastic than that of the USA following a technology shock. Finally, the authors find that the adverse impact of uncertainty shocks is heterogeneous across countries and amplified by the steady-state bankruptcy rate and risk premium.
Originality/value
This paper quantifies the effects of uncertainty shocks when there is a credit channel due to asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers for the Euro area countries, and then compares the results to that of the USA. This paper shows that financial accelerator mechanism could potentially play a significant role in business cycles in the Euro area. This result directly lends one to conclude the following: the credit channel that affects the financial sector does indeed matter for macroeconomic behavior, and that policy makers should be attentive in smoothing out uncertainties if the economic policies are to lower the business and financial cycle volatilities.
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