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Article
Publication date: 13 May 2020

Umm E. Habiba, Shen Peilong, Wenlong Zhang and Kashif Hamid

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cointegration and volatility spillover dynamics between the USA and South Asian stock markets, namely, India, Pakistan and Sri…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cointegration and volatility spillover dynamics between the USA and South Asian stock markets, namely, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to provide the knowledge about integration of financial market and volatility spillovers before, during and after global financial crisis to investors, fund managers and policy-makers.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen and Juselius cointegration test, Granger Causality test and bivaraite EGARCH model have been applied in this study to examine integration and volatility spillovers between selected stock markets.

Findings

The findings show that long-term integration between the USA market and South Asian emerging stock markets. It is found that USA stock market has causal relationship with emerging stock markets in short-term. The findings of EGARCH model reveal that asymmetric volatility spillover effects significant in all selected stock markets in pre, during and post-crisis periods. Furthermore, significant volatility spillover is found from stock markets of USA to all selected South Asian markets during and post-crisis periods. However, volatility spillovers from USA to India and Sri-Lanka markets are significant, while insignificant in case of Pakistani market in pre-crisis period. Overall, we find that returns and volatility spillover effects are higher in financial crisis period as compared to non-financial crisis period.

Practical implications

The findings of this paper have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policy-makers. They can take potential benefits from international portfolio diversification by considering all these facts. The understanding and knowledge of across volatility transmission help them to maximize the gains from diversification and minimize the risk. Policy-makers can develop such strategies which protect the markets of these economies from future financial crisis.

Originality/value

Although in finance literature numerous studies have been conducted on integration between different stock markets, most of the studies investigated the integration and volatility spillovers between developed stock markets. However, many studies also analyzed the integration among emerging stock markets in literature review but it is hard to find studies in the context of South Asian stock markets on the effect of global financial crisis on stock markets. The main contribution of this study is to investigate the stock markets integration and volatility transmission between the USA and South Asia by considering the effect of recent 2007 US subprime financial crisis.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Mohamed Abdul Majeed Mohamed Siraju, Athambawa Jahfer and Kiran Sood

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market…

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1st April 2010 to 21st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

Details

VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-902-4

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Reetika Verma

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test is employed to know the long run relationship among the stock market indices of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, Japan, China, Taiwan, Israel and South Korea. The empirical testing was done to analyze whether any significant change has been induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the cointegrating relationship of the selected markets or not. Through statistics of trace test and maximum eigen value, total number of cointegrating equations present among all the indices during different study periods were analyzed.

Findings

The presence of cointegration was found during all the sample periods and the findings suggests that the selected stock markets are associated with each other in general. During COVID-19 crisis period the cointegration level was reduced and again it regained its original level in the next year and again reduced in the subsequent next year. So, the cointegrating relationship among selected stock market indices remains dynamic and no evidence of impact of COVID-19 on this dynamism was found.

Originality/value

The study has explored the level of cointegration among the major stock indices of Asian nations in the pre, during, post-crisis and the most recent periods. The interconnectedness of the stock markets during the COVID-19 times has been compared with similar periods in different years immediately preceding and succeeding the COVID-19 times which has not been done in any of the existing study.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2024

Khushboo Aggarwal and V. Raveendra Saradhi

The aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan) over the period 1991–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

Unit root tests, the dynamic conditional correlation-Glosten Jagannathan and Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH), pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effects models are employed for the analysis.

Findings

The empirical results show that the DCC between each pair of sample countries is less than 0.5, indicating weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. Also, the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific stock markets is positive and low, implying low level of integration. The correlation between India and China stock markets is found to be the highest, implying significant level of integration. The main reason for it would be strong economic linkages and bilateral trade relationship between India and China. Moreover, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR), consumer price index (CPI)-inflation and money supply (MS) differentials are the major driver of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries.

Practical implications

The findings of the study have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers. It is found that the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (considered in the study) except China is low, which indicates weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. This implies that the Indian stock market provides good investment opportunities for foreign investors. Also, investors and portfolio managers can attain more diversified benefits and can minimize country risk by investing across Asia–Pacific countries. Further, knowledge about the factors that integrate the Indian stock market with the other Asia–Pacific stock markets will help policymakers frame suitable economic and financial stabilization policies.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the extant literature: first, by examining the linkages of Indian stock market with other Asia–Pacific countries; second, although previous studies confirmed the existence of linkages among the various stock markets, few researchers pay attention to the factors driving the process of stock market integration. This study provides additional evidence by examining the significant macroeconomic factors driving the process of such integration in the Asia–Pacific region considered under the study.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2022

Hamizah Abd Hamid and André M. Everett

This paper aims to refine the concept of community/ethnic resources for migrant communities by focusing on the way ethnic migrant entrepreneurs (EMEs) use co-ethnic-based (CEB…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to refine the concept of community/ethnic resources for migrant communities by focusing on the way ethnic migrant entrepreneurs (EMEs) use co-ethnic-based (CEB) resources in their entrepreneurial activities, taking into account their migration contexts. Migrants are usually considered as disadvantaged individuals given their restricted opportunities in the labor market and in the business arena; thus, they rely on ethnic resources for survival in the host country.

Design/methodology/approach

Through Bourdieu’s (1986) forms of capital model, the authors compare the experiences of EMEs from three migrant communities in Malaysia (specifically, the Indonesian, Pakistani and South Korean communities) with regard to their ethnic resources. The authors used a qualitative approach in analyzing our data, which includes interview narratives with 41 individuals consisting of EMEs, community leaders, embassy representatives and trade experts.

Findings

This study’s findings indicate that migration contexts influence the differences in the way ethnic resources are used by EMEs. The findings are synthesized into a framework of ethnic resources within the context of ethnic migrant entrepreneurship.

Research limitations/implications

Adopting a qualitative approach was useful in studying the subject, but the findings are still limited within the context of the study. As such, future research is encouraged to test the proposed framework and examine the underexplored aspects of migration in influencing the utilization of ethnic resources for entrepreneurial migrant communities.

Practical implications

A practical implication of this paper lies in the illustration of migrants’ usage of alternative routes for resources through co-ethnic networks, which is useful for policymakers and businesses focusing on migration and trade.

Originality/value

This framework contributes to the discourse of ethnic migrant entrepreneurship through further clarifying aspects shaping the utilization of community ethnic resources.

Details

Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, vol. 17 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6204

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2021

Yosuke Kakinuma

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover effects between Southeast Asian stock markets, bitcoin and gold in the periods before and

1055

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover effects between Southeast Asian stock markets, bitcoin and gold in the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The interdependence among different asset classes, the two leading stock markets in Southeast Asia (Singapore and Thailand), bitcoin and gold, is analyzed for diversification opportunities.

Design/methodology/approach

The vector autoregressive-Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to capture the return and volatility spillover effects between different financial assets. The data cover the period from October 2013 to May 2021. The full period is divided into two sub-sample periods, the pre-pandemic period and the during-pandemic period, to examine whether the financial turbulence caused by COVID-19 affects the interconnectedness between the assets.

Findings

The stocks in Southeast Asia, bitcoin and gold become more interdependent during the pandemic. During turbulent times, the contagion effect is inevitable regardless of region and asset class. Furthermore, bitcoin does not provide protection for investors in Southeast Asia. The pricing mechanism and technology behind bitcoin are different from common stocks, yet the results indicate the co-movement of bitcoin and the Singaporean and Thai stocks during the crisis. Finally, risk-averse investors should ensure that gold constitutes a significant proportion of their portfolio, approximately 40%–55%. This strategy provides the most effective hedge against risk.

Originality/value

The mean return and volatility spillover is analyzed between bitcoin, gold and two preeminent stock markets in Southeast Asia. Most prior studies test the spillover effect between the same asset classes such as equities in different regions or different commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the time-series data are divided into two groups based on the structural break caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study offer practical implications for risk management and portfolio diversification. Diversification opportunities are becoming scarce as different financial assets witness increasing integration.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 October 2022

Bayu Arie Fianto, Syed Alamdar Ali Shah and Raditya Sukmana

This study aims to investigate the determinants of Islamic stock returns listed on Jakarta Islamic Index (Indonesia) between 2008 and 2018.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the determinants of Islamic stock returns listed on Jakarta Islamic Index (Indonesia) between 2008 and 2018.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a quantile bounded autoregressive distributed lag (QBARDL) model to uncover relevant relationships.

Findings

This study finds that the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index, gold returns, world oil prices and exchange rates are the determinants of the Indonesia’s Islamic stock returns. However, the relationship is time varying developing intra-/inter-quantile bounded.

Practical implications

Integration of the Islamic stock returns with the real economic indicators changes over time. The findings have important implications for the policymakers, the fund managers and the investors to anticipate consequences when considering the macroeconomic conditions before participating in the Indonesian Islamic stock market.

Originality/value

Using a QBARDL, this study finds that the Islamic stock returns have on net and “time-varying intra-/inter-quantile developing” relationship with its determinants as data quantiles progressed from 25% to 75%.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2021

TrungTuyen Dang, Zhang Caihong, ThiHong Nguyen, NgocTrung Nguyen and Cuong Tran

This study aims to examine the transmission mechanism of factors on the characteristic fluctuation of Vietnamese coffee bean export price (PVN).

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the transmission mechanism of factors on the characteristic fluctuation of Vietnamese coffee bean export price (PVN).

Design/methodology/approach

Applying Markov switching–vector autoregressive model.

Findings

Significantly, the empirical results showed that the transmission of independent variables on PVN is non-linear, and the fluctuation of PVN is affected by many factors, especially PVN in the previous period. In addition, the effect of Robusta coffee price was the greatest with coefficient is 0.28785, and the correlation between PVN and it was also the highest in both regimes with coefficients are 0.5317 and 0.3959, respectively.

Originality/value

These obtained results are in accordance with reality, as Vietnam is the largest exporter of Robusta coffee in the world.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 October 2022

Sivakumar Sundararajan and Senthil Arasu Balasubramanian

This study examines the dynamic linkages between the Indian Nifty index futures traded on the offshore Singapore Exchange (SGX) and US stock indices (DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the dynamic linkages between the Indian Nifty index futures traded on the offshore Singapore Exchange (SGX) and US stock indices (DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500) under the closure of the spot market for Nifty futures.

Design/methodology/approach

With high-frequency 5-min overlapping price data, the authors employ the Johansen cointegration test to investigate long-run relationships, the Granger causality test to assess short-run dynamics and the BEKK-GARCH model for volatility spillover investigation.

Findings

The empirical findings reveal that the SGX Nifty futures market is cointegrated with the US DJIA market. The US DJIA stock index strongly influences the price discovery of SGX Nifty futures and past innovations in the US markets strongly impact the current volatility of SGX Nifty futures.

Practical implications

Findings from this study have significant implications for market participants, particularly foreign investors and portfolio managers. These findings might be helpful for market participants to improve the prediction power of expected SGX Nifty futures price and volatility, especially under the closure of the spot market. Also, SGX market participants can take the significant role of the US market into account when formulating hedging and trading strategies with Indian Nifty futures. Besides, our findings have significant implications for policymakers in evaluating market stability.

Originality/value

This article adds to the very limited research on offshore or international stock index futures; it is the first study that empirically examines the international linkages of offshore SGX Nifty futures under the closure of its underlying spot market and also the driving force behind the linkages.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 June 2019

Zafar Khan

This paper aims to elaborate in a greater detail about how to manage and eventually help resolve outstanding issues, including the core issue of Kashmir between nuclear India and

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to elaborate in a greater detail about how to manage and eventually help resolve outstanding issues, including the core issue of Kashmir between nuclear India and Pakistan. In doing so, this paper elaborates various innovative measures that could be applicable to South Asian nuclear environment that in turn could assist the South Asian nuclear leadership in understanding and managing the fragility of South Asian nuclear deterrence.

Design/methodology/approach

Innovatively, this research paper looks at the South Asian nuclear issues at three levels of analysis – understanding the prevailing dynamics of nuclear revolution and improved means of communications and promoting deterrence stability in South Asia. All three levels may be more needed than ever before in the wake of the arrival of nuclear weapons for a broader Southern Asian region.

Findings

This paper finds out that although nuclear weapons have become a reality in South Asia and these deadly weapons have prevented major wars between India and Pakistan, nuclear weapons have not prevented the crises between India and Pakistan. Therefore, both India and Pakistan have confronted a number of crises. The paper finds out that any serious crisis between India and Pakistan could further undermine the credibility of existing confidence-building measures and the same could escalate from military to nuclear level. Absent from immediate measures undertaken by the South Asian security leadership, nuclear weapons may not help prevent the war between India and Pakistan at the sub-conventional level, this paper finds out.

Originality/value

By explaining innovative measures at the three level of analysis, this papers adds to the existing literature in understanding the behavior of South Asian security leadership and how these measures could best bring positive results in preventing a major crisis that potentially bears the risk of escalation to nuclear level.

Details

International Journal of Conflict Management, vol. 30 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1044-4068

Keywords

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