Search results

The purpose of this paper is to use Weibo as a window to examine the Chinese netizens’ online attitudes and responses to two sets of population policy: the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy. The population policy change from the rigid One-Child Policy to the Selective Two-Child Policy then to the Universal Two-Child Policy aroused great attention of the Chinese people.

This research uses the crawler technique to extract data on the Sina Weibo platform. Through opinion mining of Weibo posts on two sets of population policy, the Weibo users’ online opinions on the Two-Child Policy are analyzed from two perspectives: their attention intensity and sentiment tendency. The research also use the State Bureau of Statistics of China’s national population data between 2011 and 2016 to examine the Chinese people’s actual birth behaviors after implementing the two different sets of the Two-Child Policy.

The research findings indicate that the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy are good examples of thematic public sphere of Weibo. Weibo posts on the two sets of the Two-Child Policy have undergone different opinion cycles. People from economically developed regions and populous regions have paid more attention to both sets of Two-Child Policy than their counterparts in the less developed and less populated regions. Men pay more attention to the Two-Child Policy than women do. Despite people’s huge attention to the new population policy, the population growth after the policy is not sustainable.

The new population policy alone is difficult to boost China’s population within a short period of time. The Chinese Government must provide its people with enough incentives and supporting welfare to make the population growth happen.

These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of online opinion formation and changing population policy in China.

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.

China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.

Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.

The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.

The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

This paper aims to explore the factors that affect housing prices as per Chinese articles indexed in the Chinese Science Citation Database (CSCD). There were different foci regarding what drove housing prices in China in Chinese articles, and international journal articles in English. As most previous English articles only threw light on international research, it motivated the researchers to systematically review Chinese literature’s factors that affected housing prices in China.

This paper reviewed housing price research articles indexed in the two largest Chinese academic research databases: the CSCD and China Knowledge Infrastructure Engineering Database (CNKI.NET). It systematically collected the data and adopted descriptive analysis techniques and synthesis.

This research reviewed the literature published from 2015 to 2020 and revealed some unique factors affecting China's housing prices. For example, research focused on administrative aspects such as macroeconomic regulation and control (often known as macro control). Authors of Chinese articles suggested that the two-child policy affected housing prices, which differed from that in the English journal articles. The research results implied that researchers should read top Chinese journals on top of good international journals when they study China's real estate market in the future.

Because the domestic real estate market started late, domestic real estate transaction data and real estate-related statistics are more difficult to obtain. The research is mostly based on the relationship between supply and demand, government policy and individual consumer factors, and the sample has a short time span.

As China is a planned economy country, administrative factors are one main factor that affects the housing price. There were a significant number of articles in Chinese that considered this factor to be the main driver of the real estate price. It included government investment and macro-control, i.e. direct government intervention to cool down the overheated economy. Yet, there are few English articles that threw light on this factor including the commodity housing supply and government behaviour that affect housing price. The second-child policy, which is unique in China, also played an important role in the determination of the housing price. In the articles indexed in CNKI, the second-child rate, willingness to have a second child or having a second child were mentioned in the Chinese articles but not the English ones.

In this paper, the economic, social, administrative and environmental factors were summarised, which basically covered all the factors affecting housing prices. The administrative factors were a special group of factors that affect the housing price because of the country's planned economic system. Secondly, it provided useful information to real estate development enterprises in China. To make a correct investment and management decision, real estate development enterprises must understand the actual situation and possible problems of the industry. In this study, we analysed the research literature on the real estate industry in China for the period from 2015 to 2020 one by one and determined the influencing factors of the housing price, which provided references for effective cost control. Thirdly, it allows the public to understand and grasp the real estate industry. As the housing price has been continuously increasing, the public pays increasing attention to the real estate industry. Through the literature analysis of the impact of real estate prices, this paper revealed the elements of house price expenses, which makes it convenient for ordinary people to understand the real estate industry.

This study allows foreigners who do not know Chinese to know more about factors that drove housing prices from the Chinese perspective. It also provides insights to overseas developers who wish to enter the property market in China. The results can be generalised to other non-English-speaking real estate research.

This research studies the influence and mechanism of rearing cost and endowment insurance on family fertility desire from the micro perspective.

Through the construction of overlapping generations (OLG) model and on the basis of this research purpose, the research hypothesis proposed by the theoretical model is tested by using the data of China household tracking survey (CFPS).

(1) Endowment insurance has an inhibitory effect on family fertility desire. The marginal effects of participating in old-age insurance on total fertility desire and boy fertility desire are – 3.2% and – 3.6% respectively. (2) The cost of rearing has a significant negative impact on family fertility desire. (3) There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of endowment insurance and rearing cost on fertility desire. (4) There is no significant difference in the impact of endowment insurance on fertility desire between urban and rural areas.

This research tries to fill the gap existing in the international literature by analyzing the micro mechanism of the influence degree of upbringing cost on fertility desire by introducing the rearing cost and fertility rate into the OLG, providing a micro basis for relevant quantitative calculation.